PX Costs Continue To Play A Supporting Role.

Although crude oil prices fell more than 20% in July, the price of PX fell less than 8% during the same period, especially since July 15th. The price of PX has fluctuated narrowly in the range of 970 - 950 US dollars / ton, and there has not been a substantial decline.

It is the relative firmness of PX that makes PTA continue to oscillate without regard to the continuous decline of crude oil.

The reason for PX's strength is mainly due to poor manufacturers' profits and delayed maintenance.

Since the three quarter, the processing profit is limited, especially the direct processing of PX with mixed xylene. There is basically no profit. Many Asian PX production lines in Korea and Singapore are postponed.

To a certain extent, the supply of PX is slightly tight in the market, so PX can remain relatively stable in the case of falling crude oil.

Judging from the influencing factors, short term polyester starting materials will not continue downhill, but fear of pickup is also more difficult, which means that the downstream demand will not change significantly. The biggest variable is the start-up of PTA enterprises and the price of upstream PX.

Most of the overhaul plans announced by PTA enterprises will still need to see actual profits if they are implemented in late August. This will not have a substantial impact on the PTA price in the short term.

The price of PX will be the key influencing factor for the subsequent PTA trend.

When PTA starts relatively stable, the price of PX will be closely related to the level of crude oil and its own profits.

Although crude oil is still going down, I believe that in August and September, oil prices will peak in North America.

The PX profit level will not be greatly improved in the near future, and the restart of PX device is insufficient. Recently, a 655 thousand ton device in Thailand has been stopped due to malfunction.

Since mid July,

The operating rate of production enterprises has been maintained at around 65%.

The operating rate has been hovering around 73%, and the supply and demand situation of PTA is generally stable.

In particular, the downstream polyester plant started to stabilize gradually after a drop of about 10% in the early stage, indicating that the downstream demand is relatively stable.

From the spot market paction situation, although polyester enterprises are still mainly purchasing by rigid demand, when the spot price falls below 4500 yuan / ton, the purchasing intention of downstream is enhanced obviously.

Because of the fall in PTA prices, the processing profit of PTA production enterprises has significantly contracted, or even at a loss.

When spot prices fell below 4500 yuan / ton, PTA spot enterprises began to take measures to boost them.

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On the one hand, a number of enterprises jointly launched the overhaul plan. On the other hand, Yisheng and other large factories began buying spot to support prices.