Reserve Cotton Early Turnover Is Not Prosperous, Can The Situation Change Later?

As of August 7, 2015,

The round out work has been carried out for nearly a month. The total planned output is 1 million 37 thousand and 400 tons, and the actual turnover is 42 thousand and 400 tons, with a total turnover rate of 4.09%. The domestic cotton is the main product in 2011, and the daily turnover rate has dropped from 5% on the first day to below 5%. The highest paction price is 15890 yuan / ton, the lowest paction price is 10780 yuan / ton, and the turnover volume is hovering at the bottom of the valley. The domestic cotton is mainly priced in 2011 years, and the market demand for lint is evident.

at present

The overall operation of enterprises is in the off-season, the autumn orders have not been placed on a large scale, the start-up rate of textile enterprises has dropped, and most of the cotton liners have followed the strategy of buying and selling. The inventory is at a historical low, limiting the amount of cotton auction.

At the same time, the delivery of cotton reserves is strictly required, and the spot market can be paid in arrears or in installments. Some of the spinning enterprises have tight liquidity and prefer flexible settlement.

In addition, in recent two years, domestic textile enterprises have undergone upgrading and pformation.

And blended products continue to dominate the cotton market.

The ratio dropped to a low point, and the decline in cotton consumption also restricted cotton consumption demand.

Judging from the futures market, since the launch of the reserve cotton rotation business, the supply of the lint spot market is more and more abundant, and the price of cotton futures has declined. On 8 7, the closing price of the main contract CF1601 was 12445 yuan, down nearly 900 yuan compared with July 1st.

From the time point of view, it is at the end of the 2014 year, and is gradually drawing in from the new cotton market. According to the recent survey in Xinjiang, it is known that the new cotton growing in the whole area is gratifying and the yield is high. The picking time will be around mid September. The price will be lower than 6 yuan / kg. The conversion price will be 13000 yuan / ton (including processing fees, financial expenses, etc.). The good quality and suitable price of the new cotton will aggravate the wait-and-see sentiment of the textile enterprises, resulting in the auction cotton reserve not active.

In addition, according to the recent visit to textile enterprises, the quality and price of cotton reserves are also two factors limiting the purchase of textile enterprises. Some enterprises reflect the high price of cotton reserves. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in August 7th, the mainstream price of 4129B grade Xinjiang cotton was about 12500 yuan / ton, good quality and excellent price, and time saving and labor saving. The price performance ratio was higher than that of the reserve cotton, while the quality of reserve cotton was slightly worse, so it was difficult to meet the demand of textile enterprises for cotton blending, resulting in the overall auction of cotton is not "cold".

In view of the fact that the cotton market is still in the pattern of oversupply, the operation of downstream textile enterprises has not improved significantly, and the amount of cotton used has been declining.

However, with the cotton spinning coming to an end, and at the end of this year, the demand for raw materials for textile enterprises is still there. Once the quality of cotton meets the needs of textile enterprises, whether there will be a hot wave in the reasonable price range, we need to wipe it out.