Nine, October Textile Enterprises Or Usher In Demand Stage Improvement.

According to the guidance of the national cotton reserve policy, it is expected that the reserve cotton will be stopped in September 1st. Such a large reserve cotton inventory will lose its role in the supply of the market. We should reassess the supply and demand before the next national cotton saving wheel. At this time, the output of new cotton should be estimated.

First of all, by reducing the area, the relevant institutions will have 2015 new cotton.

The estimate is estimated at around 5 million 800 thousand tons, 600 thousand less than last year, plus this year.

The continuous high temperature and drought in the region and the drought in the south of the mainland have affected the yield per unit area, and the actual output is expected to be lower than the above figures.

Second, last year.

In the sales process of high and low grade spread, various measures have been taken in cotton planting in Xinjiang. The cotton quality is expected to increase significantly over the past year.

If consumption is not expected to show a marked decline, the contradiction between supply and demand should be improved.

The height of the specific price rebound should be balanced by the degree of production decline. At this stage, I think the textile enterprises should consider avoiding the high cost caused by the rising stage, and stabilize the current low cost of raw materials, so as to provide strong conditions for the high season to compete for the market.

In addition, nine and October are the traditional peak season for textile enterprises, and demand will be improved at that time. In the case of new cotton production decline, old cotton is left behind or only bad cotton is available, textile enterprises will enhance their willingness to purchase new cotton.

Therefore, cotton prices should have a certain degree of rebound before the new cotton market comes up a lot. The time may be in mid 9 and October. If prices can be predicted at the end of August, the price will rebound earlier.

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The PTA industry chain is already at the bottom of the industry cycle, but because of the larger surplus capacity, the industry still needs a long time to adjust and build the bottom.

Recent upstream naphtha and PX are also vulnerable to falling crude oil.

The 2 million ton PX plant of CICC will gradually achieve normal production in August, which means that the domestic supply of PX will rise to a new level.

2 million tons of capacity not only make up for the supply of Tenglong aromatics due to parking, but also has surplus.

The increase in domestic supply will squeeze out imports. Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea may also have to use low prices to attract Chinese buyers, and PX prices are unlikely to rise sharply.

Polyester market has been depressed since this year's "golden three silver four" peak season.

Polyester operating rate declined, polyester loss margin unchanged, polyester stocks gradually increased.

Before the start of the second half of the peak season, polyester companies still have a drop in load and the price of polyester has stabilized slightly after the polyester supply is reduced.

At present, the negative impact of PTA downstream market on PTA prices has been very limited.

From PTA itself, the biggest pressure comes from the 1509 contract warehouse receipt.

At the end of July, warehouse receipts began to flow out, but the absolute value was still more than 100 thousand.

From the high point, the about 800000 tons of PTA will flow to the spot market. If the PTA plant does not cut down, it will lead to a sharp fall in PTA prices.

For this reason, some PTA enterprises announced that they should stop over and repair from 8 to October to cope with the negative effect of warehouse receipt outflow.

At present, the PTA market is in the out of stock stage.