Large Scale Production Cuts Support PTA Price

From PTA itself, the biggest pressure comes from the 1509 contract warehouse receipt.

At the end of July, warehouse receipts began to flow out, but the absolute value was still more than 100 thousand.

From the high point, the about 800000 tons of PTA will flow to the spot market. If the PTA plant does not cut down, it will lead to a sharp fall in PTA prices.

For this reason, some PTA enterprises announced that they should stop over and repair from 8 to October to cope with the negative effect of warehouse receipt outflow.

At present,

The market is in the out of stock stage.

The PTA industry chain is at the bottom of the industry cycle, but because of the surplus.

The industry still needs a long time to adjust and build up.

Recent upstream naphtha,

The impact of falling crude oil also continued to be weak.

The 2 million ton PX plant of CICC will gradually achieve normal production in August, which means that the domestic supply of PX will rise to a new level.

2 million tons of capacity not only make up for the supply of Tenglong aromatics due to parking, but also has surplus.

The increase in domestic supply will squeeze out imports. Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea may also have to use low prices to attract Chinese buyers, and PX prices are unlikely to rise sharply.

Polyester market has been depressed since this year's "golden three silver four" peak season.

Polyester operating rate declined, polyester loss margin unchanged, polyester stocks gradually increased.

Before the start of the second half of the peak season, polyester companies still have a drop in load and the price of polyester has stabilized slightly after the polyester supply is reduced.

At present, the negative impact of PTA downstream market on PTA prices has been very limited.

Under the downturn of demand, crude oil prices will remain weak.

In September, the warehouse receipts were centralized canceled, and the PTA enterprises should focus on overhaul, which will support the PTA price.

But the price of PTA will not rise much higher than the cost, because this will bring about a new increase in supply.

In the later stage, the PTA will continue to oscillate.

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Since May 8th, Zheng cotton futures market has shown a gradual downward trend, especially in July, cotton prices showed a relatively low trend, in early July, the stock market plunged under the stimulation of a continuous plunge, cotton futures prices have been lower than spot prices, and the difference between cotton prices inside and outside significantly reduced.

The main reason is that in July, the implementation of the national cotton storage in China, the high inventory of new cotton stocks and the very low consumption of textile enterprises in the traditional off-season.

It is understood that the monthly cotton consumption of textile enterprises dropped to nearly 480 thousand tons from the peak of nearly 700 thousand tons.

By the end of June, China Cotton Association's statistical social inventory data is 1 million 550 thousand tons, if the peak period of consumption, may end August at the beginning of September, social inventory is depleted, but if the trough period of consumption will have nearly 600 thousand tons of surplus.

In the relatively loose supply stage, textile enterprises will not take a large number of procurement strategies.

Therefore, in the period of continuous supply of state-owned cotton and textile enterprises, the trend of price maintenance remains weak.