The Significance Of The Devaluation Of RMB Has Great Influence On The 7 Major Industries, Such As Clothing And Textile Industry.

Why is RMB worthless? How should we spend RMB devaluation?

Recently, under the expectation of the US central bank raising interest rates,

In August 11th, the central bank "lightning" launched a sharp reduction in the central parity of RMB. In three days, the RMB depreciated to 4.66% against the US dollar.

"RMB continued in the near future

Has your life been affected? "With the continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate this year, the depreciation of the RMB has affected the daily necessities and daily consumption of ordinary people.

The shopping impact of Hai Tao and Chinese mama, tuition fees for overseas students and the cost of overseas travel increased.

How should ordinary people cope with the impact of the depreciation of the renminbi?

In from August 11th to 13th, the RMB opened a slump mode, and the intermediate price depreciated more than 4.66% in 3 days, setting the biggest adjustment of RMB exchange rate in the past 20 years.

In the spot exchange rate market, the yuan also dropped to 2.8% against the US dollar.

The process of unilateral appreciation of RMB has come to an end.

Since then, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been lingering low.

Whom did the renminbi cause? Why should we depreciate?

The industry has different views on the reasons why the renminbi has "depreciated" actively.

Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the renminbi has adjusted the exchange rate for many times.

But we can exclude the depreciation due to the trade deficit, because our regular export items are still surplus.

The central bank's reduction in the middle price of the Renminbi should be seen as an important step in the pformation of the central bank's exchange rate mechanism, making it close to the market price, complying with the request of the market and reflecting respect for the market.

But Xie Baisan, director of the center for financial and capital markets research at Fudan University, said that in the world's 100 currencies, the renminbi is the second most powerful currency after the US dollar.

Now currencies all over the world are competing for depreciation to stimulate.

And production; China can stand on the side of the dollar, make it stable and not depreciate; it can also quickly depreciate with most currencies.

In the long run, late devaluation is better than early demotion, and long pain is better than short pain.

It is in favor of the development of China's macro-economy that we should derogate quickly and reduce it one step at a time.

Financial commentators believe that the Fed can raise interest rates as early as September, and when the US dollar enters the interest rate cycle, the return of US dollar capital is inevitable. The depreciation of emerging market currencies is also inevitable. The difference lies in the size of the outflow.

Although this outflow has little impact on China's 3 trillion and 600 billion foreign exchange reserves, the impact of expectations and liquidity will eventually affect the price of assets; therefore, from this perspective, the depreciation of the RMB is sooner rather than later.

RMB internationalization speeds up exchange rate stability

"From the domestic and foreign economies,

As far as the situation is concerned, there is no foundation for the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Guan Qingyou, chief economist of the people's livelihood, believes that in the first half of this year, China's economy still increased by 7%, and maintained a relatively high growth rate from the global comparison.

Recently, the main economic indicators have stabilized and the economy has undergone positive changes. China has also maintained a favorable balance of trade for a long time, which has provided a good economic environment and foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

In addition, in recent years, the internationalization of the RMB and the opening up process of the financial market have accelerated. The demand for RMB by foreign subjects in trade, investment and asset allocation has gradually increased, which has injected new impetus to stabilizing the RMB exchange rate.

"Although the market expects the fed to raise interest rates will lead to a stronger US dollar for a long time, the market is already digesting.

In the future, when the Fed raises interest rates, we believe that the market will have a more rational judgement.

He said.

The significance of RMB depreciation

Many industries believe that the depreciation of the RMB will have an important impact on China's economy in the near future.

Guan Qingyou believes that, in the medium to long term, the depreciation of the exchange rate is an important step in the marketization of China's exchange rate mechanism. Not only that, but also to a certain extent, it is conducive to optimizing China's economic structure.

The exchange rate adjustment is conducive to the return of resources from real estate and other heavy assets to SMEs and emerging industries, both squeezing the bubble and optimizing the economic structure.

"In the short term, the depreciation of the RMB and favorable export will help ease the downward pressure on the economy."

But considering that the contribution of the financial industry and the real estate industry to GDP is unsustainable, the GDP growth rate will break 7 in the second half of the year. Steady growth measures will not be withdrawn, only will be overweight, and the thinking will be more pragmatic.

In addition, he believes that for the capital market, in the short term, the depreciation of the exchange rate will generate liquidity pressure on the stock debt, but the bond market will be better than the stock market, because there is a need for funds to avoid risks.

Taking into account the pressure of liquidity hedging, the reduction is a probability event, stocks may have trading opportunities, and bonds are shipping opportunities.

In the report, CITIC Securities believes that the depreciation of the exchange rate 5% has double effects on the instruments and textile industries with lower gross margins, but the profits of the import heavy energy related industries, such as natural gas, petroleum coking, metal mining and other industries, are under pressure from the backdrop of the depreciation of the exchange rate.

Devaluation of RMB has great influence on 7 industries.

Direction: benefit

Reasons: RMB depreciation and export promotion; foreign currency settlement, increased exchange benefit; exchange gains and losses offset the profit pressure caused by rising labor costs.

2. Export trade

Direction: benefit

The reason is that the depreciation of the RMB will promote the increase of export orders, and foreign currency settlement will increase exchange benefits.

3, iron and steel

Direction: benefit

The reason is: the depreciation of RMB, the promotion of export increase, the settlement of foreign currency, the increase of exchange earnings, the promotion of excess capacity and the improvement of asset management efficiency with the help of one belt.

4. Rare metal varieties

Direction: benefit

Reasons: depreciation of RMB, appreciation of foreign currency, import price increase, and potential profit margins for enterprises with original stock and domestic mines.

5. Air pport industry

Direction: damage

The reason: buying a plane needs a large amount of foreign currency to form a huge long-term foreign currency debt, and the exchange loss is formed under the background of foreign currency appreciation.

6, real estate

Direction: damage

Reason: real estate enterprises rely too much on external financing, especially for housing companies with larger foreign currency exposure.

A large number of foreign currency debt formation final exchange losses reduce the profit margins of enterprises; foreign capital outflows reduce the real estate sales expectations.

7, finance

Direction: damage

Reasons: a large number of foreign currency debt exists and exchange losses, resulting in financial industry refinancing difficulties, lack of funds in the banking system, the formation of liquidity pressure.