When The Raw Material Goes Down, Will The Downtrend PTA Be Stable?

The PTA price has fallen below the historical low. When the price will be stabilized, it needs to be analyzed from the current industry pattern.

In view of the current price difference between PX and naphtha, PX still has production profits and there will be no device overhaul in the near future.

If crude oil prices can not be stabilized, PX will not be able to replicate the strong trend in the early stage, and the cost of PTA will still drop.

Downstream polyester production is still around 70% low, according to past experience, the market will gradually pick up, but this process needs the coordination of terminal textile demand.

The opening rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has picked up slightly this week, but it is still necessary to look at the order situation if we can continue in the future. Especially the depreciation of the RMB will bring much more boost to the textile export.

It is rather difficult to hope that the rapid rise of downstream demand will support the PTA price.

From the end of July, the PTA factory was in

The pay increased significantly, which stabilized the spot price and, to a certain extent, reversed the decline in the profits of the PTA factory, especially after the PX price went down, and the processing profit of the PTA factory increased significantly.

And if profits continue to deteriorate, the PTA plant will again stabilize the spot, but it will be limited to "stable" but not "raise" prices.

We should pay close attention to the processing profit of PTA plant.

After a sharp fall in early July, the PTA price reached a new oscillation range between 4550 yuan and 4800 yuan per ton.

Although crude oil fell from US $53 / barrel to US $43 / barrel during the same period, it dropped by about 19%. However, because of the relatively stable PX price, the PTA price did not go down with the crude oil.

However, the continuous decline of crude oil has finally been reflected in the price of PX in mid August, plus the commissioning of Ningbo CICC PX plant and its domestic operation.

The operating rate has dropped, and many profits and losses have loosened the price of PX. PTA, which has lost its cost, has started to decline continuously.

At the same time, macro systematicness.

Warming also has an impact on the price of PTA.

The sharp depreciation of the currencies of emerging market countries, including the renminbi, and the continuous adjustment of the domestic stock market triggered a sell-off in the global capital market. The market's worries about systemic risks accelerated the decline of PTA and fell below the historical low point created in the 2008 financial crisis.

On the whole, under the current industry pattern, PTA wants to stabilize first, and the price of crude oil needs to stop. The upstream and downstream industries are hard to support the trend reversal of the price.

At present, WTI crude oil has fallen below 40 US dollars / barrel, and Brent crude oil has also been close to 43 US dollars / barrel.

Despite the fact that oil prices and oil producing countries are not able to maintain their current prices for a long time, the trend of short-term oil price decline has not changed.

The PTA of 4300 yuan / ton is at the bottom of history, but at present, the risk of bottom hunting is still large.