The Short And Short Market Turnover Atmosphere Has Obviously Dropped, Wait-And-See Thickening.

Shandong and Hebei market short and short quotations rose last week after today's stability, 1.4 direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 7150-7250 yuan / ton to send, early PTA futures Xiaoqiang, downstream enquiries less.

Pure polyester yarn price is stable, overall sales volume is not big, 32S

11100 yuan / ton up and down, 45s mainstream quotation 12200 yuan / ton nearby.

This week we still need to focus on crude oil, PTA futures and polyester and downstream cotton mill maintenance.

On Saturday, the price of polyester and staple manufacturers increased by 50-200 yuan / ton, and today's stability and wait-and-see are the main ones. Jiangsu and Zhejiang's 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market mainstream reports 7150-7200 yuan / ton.

Fujian

The quotation has been raised repeatedly on Friday, and this report is stable. The mainstream of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market is reported to be short of 6900-7000 yuan / ton, and the lower reaches are mainly on the sidelines after replenishment last week.

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Although the situation of cotton is not optimistic, its positive factors also have two positive advantages: first, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report is positive.

Recently, the US Department of agriculture cut production expectations and cotton prices soared.

According to the US Department of agriculture's global production and demand forecast for August, global cotton inventories decreased by 653 thousand tons in 2015/16, mainly due to the decline in cotton production in main producing countries.

Among them, the output of US cotton has been reduced by 10% to 2 million 852 thousand tons, due to the reduction of the actual broadcasting area, the increase in the rate of abandoned cultivation and the decrease in yield per unit area.

China's cotton production has been cut by 218 thousand tons, India has cut 109 thousand tons, and Uzbekistan has also been reduced. Two, the pressure on the supply side of the cotton market will be reduced. According to the sampling survey of the main cotton producing counties in 13 cotton producing provinces in the whole country, the actual planting area of cotton in 2015 is expected to be 52 million 640 thousand mu, 13 million 450 thousand mu less than that in 2014, and 20% reduction; the total output of cotton in the country is 5 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 14% over the same period.

In terms of imports, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2015, 105 thousand and 700 tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 56 thousand and 100 tons, or 34.67%.

From September 2014 to July 2015, China imported 1 million 600 thousand and 900 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1 million 197 thousand and 700 tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 42.80%.

In the positive role, cotton futures market has been showing signs of good.

In this week, other commodities have low innovation, cotton main contract trend is relatively stable, ready to go, looking for a breakthrough opportunity.

Liu Xintian, the core editor of China business development center and China Commodity Development Research Center, said in an interview with reporters that cotton will become the "pioneer" of the first big rebound in commodity decline.

There are three reasons: first, the recent bad profits have been basically digested, while the good ones have not yet been worked out. The coming golden nine silver ten will stimulate the concentrated outbreak of cotton potential. Two, this year's El Nino phenomenon may be the strongest since records. The influence of climatic conditions will lead to the decline of cotton production and the increase of cotton demand. Three, from the price point of view, the domestic yarn and imported yarn begin to be competitive because of the long term bottom of cotton prices, and from the substitution point of view, the price of viscose begins to be higher than that of cotton, which also has a positive effect on cotton demand.

Liu Xintian predicted that cotton prices or 5%~15% rebounding space, and the rebound window may be from the end of August to the middle of September, from September to the end of 10, the probability of concussion finishing is larger. In November, or hitting 13800~14000 yuan / ton price range, the possibility of entering the bottom shock will be greater in the middle and late 11.