Save The Market From Temporary Treatment To Both Symptoms And Symptoms

If the liquidity provided by the direct purchase of stock to the two tier market is the "standard" to govern the abnormal fluctuations of the stock market, then it includes the recent regulators to check the media, financial institutions,

Measures such as irregularities, cleaning up the funds on the sidelines, encouraging the dividend repurchase of listed companies, and promoting mergers and acquisitions are measures to control the abnormal fluctuations of the stock market.

Combined with the recent attitude and initiatives of the regulators, the rescue market has gone from being a temporary solution to a new stage of tackling both symptoms and problems.

Now the market is not short of money, but lack of confidence.

Recent regulators

The pformation from the support index to the improvement of the basic system of the securities market may become the starting point to restore investor confidence.

Judging from the recent statements and actions of regulators, the rescue market is shifting from "palliative" to "concurrent treatment". The stock market has begun to enter the stage of confidence restoration from liquidity restoration. At the same time, with the background of steady growth fermentation, the intermediate rebound logic is brewing, and is expected to start at 9.11~12.12.

In September 6th, the head of the securities and Futures Commission made an overnight statement: the SFC is combining the stabilization of the market, the restoration of the market and the construction market; the index fusing mechanism scheme is under study and formulation; at the same time, the company will continue to play a stabilizing role in various forms.

In September 5th, President Zhou Xiaochuan mentioned at the G20 meeting that the RMB exchange rate has stabilized, the A share market adjustment has been roughly in place, the financial market is expected to be more stable, and the reform plans are advancing in an orderly way.

In August 31st, the SFC, the Ministry of Finance and the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).

Four ministries and commissions jointly issued articles, vigorously promoted the cash dividends of listed companies, and supported the repurchase shares of listed companies, aiming to improve the investment return mechanism and enhance the efficiency and vitality of the capital market.

In the early stage of policy, there is a lack of sustained and robust rebound in the market: the first is the root cause of the stock market disaster. The basic system of the stock market has not been fundamentally solved. Two, the stock market crash has led investors to fall down on the reform and pformation, the market is in a vacuum period, and there is no clear investment thread. Three, the valuation of natural repair has not yet been completed, and A shares are still not cheap.

Rescuing the market from the "standard" to "tackling both the root and the root causes" is expected to solve the first problem raised above. From the 730 Political Bureau meeting to the 828 State Council special session, the logic of steady growth is gradually proving true and steady growth has the potential to become the main line of market investment at the next stage, which solves the above second problems. If the effect of steady growth finally shows up and the profits of enterprises improve, then the valuation will look relatively cheap, which will solve the above third problems.

The above three problems have been solved. Under the premise that the liquidity environment is relatively abundant and the international financial situation is stable, the market will have a preliminary basis for reversing the problem.

The time and height of the reversal also depend on the market going out of the "policy greenhouse" and the rhythm of the basic system of the securities market, as well as the specific direction, scale and effect of steady growth.

In the first ten days of August, we pointed out that "the market still needs to shake down repeatedly, and pointed out that intermediate rebound depends on 1-3 months' observation period, short term (1 months), insisting on" sitting on the small side "and emphasizing the prudent keynote. If the 1-3 month observation period proves true, the market is expected to have an intermediate rebound, that is," hope big ".

Based on the above judgment, we reiterate the idea of "sitting on the small and looking big", sitting in a small stage (before the intermediate rebound starts), and actively participating in thematic investment under the premise of stabilizing the market, and grasping the thematic opportunities. Of course, we must make good control of the positions and choose the stocks at the best time.