Stock Market Interpretation: Bad News Is Fully Exposed And Monday Is Still Optimistic.

The national team can use bank loans to buy key stocks accurately, continue to squeeze short positions in the stock market, and use various extreme methods to limit futures shorts.

On Monday, the new regulations of CICC can clearly show that regulators have decided not to wander around, but start to be resolute.

After four days of rest, the bad news is fully exposed, and all kinds of negative analysis are very detailed.

But I am still optimistic that Monday's stock index will be red or down.

At this point, we should actively buy bank stocks, or do more in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index or Shanghai Stock Index 50 index.

The first choice is 300.

I want to smile before giving reasons.

For this reason, the national team may be forced.

The total market value of the two cities is about 50 trillion.

If the central bank indirectly makes more loans to the certificate companies, it will be hard to resist the massive turbulence in the mass market.

But, such as the focus of funds to lift the important stock index, the certificate may be able to do the utmost.

Last Tuesday's crisis in the afternoon of the big market, the card pulled up the A of the industrial and Commercial Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the industrial and Commercial Bank A) and pushed it to the limit.

At this point, ICBC has a total market capitalization of about 1 trillion and 450 billion.

After careful analysis, its total share capital is about 356 billion 400 million shares, while H-share accounts for 24% and A share is about 76%.

In these 76%, the Ministry of Finance and Huijin have 2470 shares.

92% of capital stock.

In other words, if the industrial and commercial A set up a listed company alone, its circulation shares will be less than 8%, which may have violated the relevant regulatory requirements.

If we deduct the shares of other state-owned enterprises which are "politically oriented", the remaining tradable shares of industrial and commercial A may be less than 20 billion shares, with a market value of less than 100 billion yuan.

This time, in order to protect the plate, the certificate should be constantly buying A, which is almost conclusive.

Not yet over, in August 19th, Huijin handed over a group of four major stocks from the card holders, with a scale of about 20 billion yuan (including more than 1 billion shares in the industrial and commercial A).

The payment of Huijin means that the certificate company has a more flexible portfolio ratio and cash, and can continue to buy A and other banking stocks.

After repeated criticism, Huijin will be more politically aware, and will not sell a penny of stocks and firmly defend the gold medal.

In this way, the financial circulation stocks represented by industrial and commercial A will continue to decrease.

In addition to the data released by the exchange, there is no way to accurately predict the current real liquidity of A.

The author estimates that it may not be able to catch up with a medium-sized industrial listed company.

Only in this way will there be almost no turnover in the weekend (less than 7 billion yuan), and the A share of the commercial and industrial sector has been closed.

So are banks and other large heavyweights.

If the card is to go all out this Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index will probably remain in the red market or fall.

At this point, the best buy strategy is looking for large.

Which companies actually have smaller circulation and lead the national team to buy and hold.

You don't have to worry about it. Anyway, the national team has been deeply trapped. (so far, the national team has lost a lot in the market, and there are various assumptions, no longer listed). Ordinary investors can wait for the company to try to save themselves.

Secondly, why is it not suitable to buy small stocks such as gem? The daily report shows that the profit growth rate of the gem (excluding individual stocks) is 35% compared to the same period last year. Considering the other financial indicators of the gem, this development speed can initially give 35 times the dynamic valuation, but the actual valuation level of the real estate board is about 90 times, so it is still not suitable for stock buying, and the holder should still sell.

Repeat my previous view.

The acceleration of profit growth is not a good thing. Instead, it may mean that the story is over and the profit is no longer. This kind of plate is the concept and expectation, and the best case is that the listed companies are always hard to fulfill their profits and maintain their dreams.

Once it is really small, it will make the market more clear and see the absurdity of supporting 100 times the value of medium growth.

Finally, consider the next term.

IH discount 8.6%, IF 10.89%, IC 12.9%.

The premium is so deep that it is near historical records.

Many futures experts predict that due to the loss of liquidity, the premium may continue to deepen, and the spot sale will increase accordingly.

However, considering that delivery will be made in two weeks, there will be a mistake in the long run. The national team is likely to recklessly continue to buy large share ownership and push up the stock index for two weeks. At that time, the IF and IH bears may face difficulties.

This is the reason why the Hong Kong government lifted the Hang Seng Index and forced the global hedge fund to lose money.

Look at the futures market opponents of the national team.

From the perspective of hedging, it is no longer meaningful to continue to protect the market, so shorting will be reduced. Judging from speculation, whether it is necessary to continue to face the attitude of such a resolute state, it is too much to discuss.

Today, the state can set a margin level of 40%, and tomorrow it may be 50%. It can not be used to abolish the stock index futures directly, so that the national short sellers are totally helpless.

Do we really want to go all the way to the end? It's good to see who will fight.

Everyone is a rational investor (I even wrote an article that used PMI to prove the downside of A shares. See the public number: Boeing aircraft), but I no longer want to continue my previous view.

In September, it was no longer suitable for short selling.

By next Monday, I am optimistic that the stock market will be closed at the end of the day, or that it will fall very little.

We should actively buy large bank stocks, or do more SSE 50 or Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.