Gradual Improvement Of Downstream Polyester Demand

PTA downstream polyester products are characterized by seasonal characteristics.

Generally speaking, 6 and July were the traditional off-season of polyester, and after August, the polyester off-season gradually passed, and the demand began to start in the peak season, and lasted until November.

From this year's situation, the load of polyester began to rise and fall from the beginning of 8, rising from the lowest 70.2% load to the present 80%.

The main reason behind the rapid recovery of polyester load is, on the one hand, the improvement of terminal demand, the resumption of the polyester device after routine maintenance, and on the other hand, it benefited from the first half of 8 months.

The benefits have begun to improve and the load increase caused by the decline in polyester products inventory.

From the perspective of industrial profits, since the middle of August, the profit of polyester products is basically positive, and filament cash flow has climbed to a high level in the year, far better than the PTA industry.

We believe that the improvement of polyester profit level is mainly due to the difference in the price of the upstream raw material prices.

Mainly from

In the light of the situation, heavy load reduction actions in 6 and July laid a good foundation for reducing stock in polyester factories.

At the same time,

It brought certain speculative demand, and crude oil rebounded sharply at the end of 8, which boosted market confidence to a certain extent, and also boosted the demand for replenishment of some downstream enterprises in anticipation of the peak season.

Up to now, the stock of polyester plant has been at a relatively reasonable level, laying a good foundation for polyester load upgrading.

Up to now, polyester filament and other polyester products are more effective, and polyester stocks after two months of digestion after inventory pressure has eased significantly.

Under the expectation of profit recovery, inventory pressure relief and the demand for the monthly demand improvement in the peak season, the power of polyester load to maintain high operation in the near future is more abundant, which has a pulling effect on the PTA price.

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As the direct upstream material of PTA, the price of PX is directly related to the price of PTA.

From 2013 to 2014, a large number of new PX production capacity began to release, and PX processing profits sharply reduced from 600 to 700 US dollars / ton to 300 to 350 US dollars / ton profit and loss balance line edge.

In 2015, the pressure of new PX production capacity was relatively small. Only 1 million 600 thousand tons of Sinopec Sinopec set up a new set of equipment in August, and it was officially put into operation in August. In the first half of the year, the accident of Tenglong aromatics aromatics explosion occurred, which made the market oversupply more relaxed.

Recently, the maintenance of PX devices in Asia has increased significantly.

Thailand PTT62 10000 ton plant stopped in July 28th, planned to stop and repair for 75 days or so. South Korea's Ssangyong 800 thousand ton plant stopped in August 18th and planned to stop for about 30 days.

From 9 to October, a large number of PX devices are still being overhauled.

According to the information released by the PX plant at present, apart from the 1 million tons of Urumqi Petrochemical Company's load reduction operation in September, there will be more than 300 tons of equipment in the Asian region to be overhauled, 700 thousand tons in Korea, 700 thousand tons in Samsung, 1 million tons in Total, ten thousand tons in Korea, 250 thousand tons in Japan, and 300 tons in October. In addition, the South Korean GS40 million tons plant is planned to reduce production in November.

The PX load will drop again to below 70% below two years.

Judging from the current PX production profit, PX- naphtha spreads remain at $350 / ton, and is still at a good profit level throughout the polyester industry chain.

However, in the context of the increase in the overhaul of the PX plant and the absence of more new capacity releases, the PX processing profit level is expected to show an expansion trend, which will form strong support for PX and PTA prices.