Is China'S Stock Market Waiting? Wait For What?

In terms of the stock market itself, it seems that the market is waiting for the paction volume to be released from the new market, or that confidence is restored. But I think the more important thing is that monetary policy and reform policy can bring a steady expectation to China's stock market.

Because we can not expect the world economy to recover as soon as possible, nor can we escape the slump of the global economy, we can only hope that our country can have a sensible choice of domestic demand policy.

After all, China still has huge and unique advantages compared with developed countries: China has huge institutional dividends.

Therefore, China should give up and at least part of its efforts to internationalize the RMB, and shift more energy to the healthy development of the domestic economy.

The biggest taboo is that in order to implement the tight monetary policy in order to internationalize the RMB and to stabilize or even appreciate the renminbi, it will restrain the capital vitality and institutional bonus of the reform.

Therefore, the stock market is waiting, and so on, and the Chinese government will make the right policy choices.

Many analyses will tell you some truth from their own understanding.

Today, there are many uncertain factors that affect the stock market trend, so no matter who can not avoid it.

I also dare to try, but I hope to give some inspiration to investors.

Let's look at the international economic situation from the angle of the international economic situation.

Today, the US economy should have the most bright spots, but are there really good data?

For example, the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to around 5%, but how high is the real unemployment rate? According to the recent data provided by Mr. Wang Jian, vice president and economist of the Chinese macroeconomics society, if the population who has given up the search for work continues, the real unemployment rate in the United States should be over 10%, and even if there are "working" people, there will be many "half day jobs".

So, to say that the US economy is good, I think it is only a temporary performance in the process of economic recovery, and there is doubt about sustainability.

Just imagine how high the US economy depends on the global economy. If the global economy is not good, the US economy will get better? I doubt it.

For example, the financial industry is one of the largest industries in the United States. Under the premise of the global real economy downturn, the financial industry will have a good life. Isn't that a myth?

The United States also has the goal of "re industrialization". Is Europe and Japan going to "re industrialization"? What is the new industry besides the traditional industries? Robots? 3D printing? Wearable devices? These are technological advances and new industries. But the question is whether these "fragmented new things" can afford the global economy to enter a new growth period?

I think some fragmented new technologies can not bring the world's economic power with the steam engine and information technology of that year.

In fact, the Fed has been hesitant in raising interest rates. The core problem is that the world economy is likely to enter a new recession and even a relatively strong "recession" period.

Of course, in the process, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to hijack a large country, it will certainly increase the strength of the US economic muscle from the angle of "wealth redistribution", but it will not fundamentally change the prosperity of the world economy.

We are looking at China.

There are many risk factors, and the core problem lies in the serious lack of active economic power.

We always believe that China's economic growth is not 7% or 6%, but the key is initiative growth. According to the central government's formulation, it is called endogenous growth.

In my opinion, to achieve initiative growth, we must give full play to the vitality of private capital.

To arouse the vitality of private capital, we must create a good policy and financial environment for capital.

Now, the policy environment is improving because China is undergoing an unprecedented reform, which provides an important foundation for further releasing the vitality of China's economy.

However, we also see that the improvement of China's capital's financial environment is slow. The core is the high level of real lending interest rate (over 10%).

Such financial costs will surely hedge the effect of reform.

We say that monetary policy is a total policy, which is about every corner of the economy, if reform is released.

But the monetary condition is too tight, the credit cost is too high, and the capital market is depressed. How can the capital vitality of the reform be released? This is the most fatal problem in China nowadays.

Why can't China take measures to relax money more effectively? I think the key is the direction of RMB exchange rate.

If the monetary loosening is too great, then the renminbi.

It will certainly accelerate, which will provide an excellent excuse for the world's attempts to short China, resulting in serious financial attacks.

Of course, if a financial attack occurs, the renminbi held by foreigners will be involved in the sell-off, which will lead to unimaginable consequences.

Of course, it will affect the process of RMB internationalization.

Is this going to happen? It's dangerous. After all, China's economy can be attacked a lot.

For example, the local debt problem, the high debt ratio of enterprises, the problem of overcapacity and so on will become investors' worry about the explosive growth of bank bad debts.

In view of the above, there will be a major contradiction in China's economic policy.

The situation of the economy needs monetary policy easing, but the fear of RMB attack has hindered monetary policy easing.

How to find a balance? This will lead investors to see that monetary policy has become loose and tight and become simple and blurred. This has led to the anticipation of confusion and confusion in the stock market.

This is not very troublesome, is it?