The Downstream Polyester And Weaving Industry Is Not Booming.

During the holiday season, the US crude oil supply is expected to decline, and Russia, Saudi Arabia and other major oil producing countries are talking about supporting the oil market. The international crude oil prices have risen for three consecutive days, which will play a certain role in boosting the PTA market after the holiday. However, PTA's fundamentals remain interlaced with many factors, and the PTA price will continue to maintain a low position.

Since the beginning of this year, the export situation of China's textile and clothing is rather severe. According to customs data, from 2015 to August, China's textile and clothing exports were 184 billion 476 million US dollars, down 4.61% from the same period last year, compared with 193 billion 383 million US dollars and 5.71% growth in the same period last year, the decrease was ten percentage points. Compared with the negative growth of -3.1% in the first half of this year, the decline continued to expand by 1.5 percentage points. Recently, the news of the closure and shutting down of garment enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has shaken the confidence of the industry. Under the background of currency devaluation, rising labor costs and the pressure of domestic and foreign economic downward pressure in emerging countries, it is expected that the future export and the whole industry situation will still not be optimistic.

Overall, the PTA market will continue the 4200 to 4800 yuan / ton interval running pattern.

More recently, the main suppliers of crude oil have had more positive comments and statements, and the surplus of crude oil is expected to narrow. The Russian energy minister said last week he discussed oil market problems with Saudi Arabia and will continue to interact with each other. Discuss 。 Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary General Badri said at a meeting in London that OPEC and non OPEC countries should work together to reduce global supply. OPEC estimates that global investment in oil and gas projects will decrease by 22.4% this year, the biggest drop in history. Crude oil consumption will also be boosted by low oil prices. The global demand for crude oil will increase by 1 million 300 thousand barrels per year next year.

In addition, the short-term energy outlook released by the US energy information administration in October shows that the supply of non OPEC crude oil has decreased, while the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2016 will reach the highest level in six years, which means that the international crude oil surplus relief process will be faster than that of the market.

From the specific data, the US energy information agency estimated that the average daily output of crude oil in the United States dropped by 120 thousand barrels in September, and reduced the global crude oil supply forecast by 0.2%. At the same time, the global demand for crude oil is expected to increase by 0.2% in 2015, and the average daily consumption of crude oil and liquid fuels is expected to reach 93 million 800 thousand barrels this year. For the supply and demand situation in 2016, the US energy information agency estimated that the global crude oil supply in 2016 was 95 million 980 thousand barrels per day, down 0.1% from the September report, and that the global crude oil demand in 2016 was 95 million 200 thousand barrels per day, up 0.3% from last month's Report.

However, with the passage of time, after 15 to 25 days of maintenance period, the PTA market will again face the dilemma of re starting the device. At the same time, considering the continuous loss situation over the years, it has already made PTA Factory cash flow is more intense, and at the end of the year, enterprises will have to maintain a high level of labor in order to ensure the normal operation of capital flow, so as to win more bank credit funds. By then, PTA will return to overcapacity, and spot prices will continue to be under pressure.

9 to October is the tradition of downstream polyester and weaving industry. Peak season However, according to the investigation and understanding of China chemical fiber information network, the overall demand is far behind the expectation of the peak season. Some factories are difficult to collect deposits, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. As of the end of September, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving start-up rate dropped to around 65%, polyester load dropped to about 78%.