China'S Three Quarter GDP Fell Below The 7% Pass Monetary Policy Faces Many Tests.

According to the financial data released by the central bank in September, the broad money (M2) growth rate reached 13.1% and the RMB loan increased by 9 trillion and 900 billion yuan. At present, monetary policy is in the pition period from total quantity to structural pformation. The next step is to pay attention to the direction of monetary policy, and the idea of directional regulation will continue.

Despite the financial data from September, the effect of the prudent monetary policy of the central bank has initially appeared, but in October 19th, the official GDP released in the three quarter was 6.9%, which fell below the 7% threshold.

In response to the three quarter economic performance, a number of people interviewed by reporters said they expected the GDP to break 7, and believed that the overall economic operation remained stable. However, monetary policy will face many tests.

Monetary policy fine-tuning has achieved initial success.

In fact, in September, financial data showed that

The effect is not unsatisfactory.

In the first three quarters of 2015, the financial statistics report showed that in September, 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan was added to new loans, and the scale of social financing rose to 1 trillion and 350 billion, rising for three consecutive months.

M2 grew slightly to 13.1% last year, and M1 rose to 11.4%, the highest in May 2013.

Yang Chi, head of the strategic Office of Huaxia Bank Development Research Department, told reporters that according to the financial data released by the central bank in September, the broad money (M2) grew by 13.1% over the same period last year, and the RMB loans increased by 9 trillion and 900 billion yuan. The "micro stimulation" measures, such as lowering interest rates in the early stage and adjusting the loan to deposit ratio, have released more liquidity, and the fine-tuning of monetary policy has achieved initial success.

But according to the three quarter data, Zhou Jingtong, a senior analyst at Bank of China International Financial Research Institute, told reporters that from the supply angle, the supporting role of the service industry was further enhanced, and the contribution rate of service industry to GDP growth continued to increase. However, the trend of slowing down of the second industry has not been reversed. The growth rate in the third quarter has slowed down 0.2 percentage points compared with the second quarter. From the perspective of demand, the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth has significantly improved.

Judging from this, China's economic growth structure is changing, the power is switching, the employment situation is basically stable, and prices continue to maintain a low level.

Liu Xuezhi, a financial research center at Bank of communications, believes that there are three downsides and uncertainties in the current economic operation.

First, the growth rate of investment in real estate development continues to decline; two, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry is down; the three is

The pulling effect on economic growth is not as good as in the first half year.

A big uncertainty is whether the steady growth of the source of funds can effectively solve the problem, will affect the growth rate of infrastructure investment can rebound.

Liu Xuezhi said positive factors helped stabilize the economy.

Prudent monetary policy continues to fine tune the slack direction to promote social financing costs and market liquidity.

The fourth quarter is expected to have a smooth economic operation and achieve about 7% economic growth throughout the year.

"The problem we need to pay attention to is that the volume of traditional industries is relatively large, and the volume of new industries is relatively small.

The growth of new industries can not make up for the vacancy left by traditional industries.

The overall downward pressure is still relatively large.

Zhou Jingtong said.

"But in general, it will tend to be abundant in liquidity. This is a general direction, because at present and for some time to come, the economy, especially the real economy, is very difficult. Without the improvement and support of the real economy, other indicators are also difficult to improve.

The effect of monetary policy in the early stage is beginning to show, in particular, the financial data is good, and the overall economic data is not good enough.

It has been 5 times to reduce interest rates, but the effect of corporate financing costs is not yet clear, and financial markets are still relatively unevenly split, or linkage is not strong.

Zhou Jingtong said.

Zhang Jun, director of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities, believes that in the fourth quarter, the central bank may also have to reduce interest rates and cut interest rates once more, in order to consolidate the effect of the previous policy and to some extent hedge the tightening effect of monetary policy caused by the decline in foreign exchange holdings.

The idea of directional control will continue.

In view of the trend of monetary policy of the central bank in the future, Yang Chi believes that monetary policy is in the pition period from total quantity to structural pformation. The next step is to pay attention to the direction of monetary policy, and the idea of directional regulation will continue.

The purpose of the overall regulation is still to keep the bottom line of the systemic regional financial risks and ensure that the whole society maintains moderate liquidity.

In the context of slowing foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has tried to introduce more funds into the key areas such as agriculture, rural areas, small and micro enterprises, and infrastructure construction through refinancing of credit assets pledge and refinancing of policy banks.

Yang Chi said: "we cannot expect too much monetary policy.

The adjustment of industrial structure is the task of the real economy itself. Appropriate monetary policy can promote but can not replace the work of the enterprise itself.

From the early stage of monetary policy operation, Yang Chi analyzed that under the condition of weak demand of the real economy, we should rely on the total loose monetary policy tools such as comprehensive interest rate reduction and general reduction, so as to reduce financing costs and stimulate market demand.

Yang Chi further indicated that the main problem at present is not that the overall liquidity of the market is insufficient, but that the pmission channels of monetary policy are not smooth, and that the funds are difficult to enter the areas that need priority support.

Therefore, to promote directional operation of structural adjustment, the use of SLF, PSL, directional reduction and refinancing will be the main keynote of the next stage of monetary policy.

"Taking credit assets pledge reloan as an example, the central bank will use credit assets as collateral, setting up a higher discount rate for agriculture related and small and micro loans, setting up a lower discount rate for loans in excess capacity areas, high-energy consumption and high pollution areas, or even excluding the scope of compliance pledge products, so as to adjust the lending direction of commercial banks, so as to achieve the goal of directional regulation."

Yang Chi said.

In February 2015 and April, the central bank adjusted the deposit reserve ratio two times in the way of universal and directional combination.

First, the deposit reserve ratio of the general financial institutions accumulated 1.5 percentage points.

The two is to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions by reducing the deposit reserve ratio of the Agricultural Development Bank from 18% to 10.5%.

In addition, in June 2015, the central bank further targeted targeted financial institutions.

The first is to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of urban commercial banks and non County Rural Commercial Banks to 0.5 percentage points.

Two, the state owned large commercial banks, joint stock commercial banks and foreign-funded banks will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points for loans to the "three rural" or small and micro enterprises.

The three is to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial companies by 3 percentage points.