The New Cotton Purchase Price In The New Cotton Market Has Dropped Sharply, Which May Lead To A New Problem Of Selling Cotton.

In October, it was the "boom period" for the acquisition of new cotton, but this year, the acquisition company was cautious in entering the market.

Therefore, the acquisition of new cotton is slow.

At the same time, with the end of new cotton picking, about this year

The topic of quality has been booming, especially after the introduction of cotton inspection index.

According to the public inspection data of China's Bureau of inspection and quarantine, as of October 12th, the weighted length index of cotton has been reduced by 1mm compared with the same period this year. The proportion of cotton less than 28mm is 59%, and the quality of cotton has declined sharply compared with previous years.

New cotton

Progress is faster and short-term listing is increasing.

Fewer channels, higher financing costs, and the tight capital of enterprises themselves, this year's new cotton purchase market is particularly "bad money", cotton prices fell sharply.

Since September 25th, the decline of Zheng cotton has been aggravated. At present, the CF1601 contract has fallen below 12000 yuan / ton.

The industry believes that Zheng cotton accelerated decline partly due to the current domestic cotton has entered a large number of listing period, and business capital is tight, the market less money and more goods.

Reduction of cotton length index in Xinjiang

By the end of August this year, the new cotton picking in southern Xinjiang had begun sporadically, and entered the September. Due to the decline of cotton production per unit area in Xinjiang in the new year, farmers were reluctant to sell. Xinjiang processing enterprises were also cautious in purchasing, picking and purchasing slowly.

Especially after entering October, although the picking progress of new cotton has been accelerated, due to the reluctant sale of farmers and processing factories concerned about the risk of acquisition, the progress of farmers' settlement has been delayed again.

"According to past rules, it is expected that most of the northern Xinjiang will be harvested by the end of October, and the northern Xinjiang will be fully picked up in the middle of November, and the southern Xinjiang will also be picked up in mid November.

Generally speaking, due to factors such as reluctant sale, the completion of processing may be in late November to early December, and the overall picking rhythm will be postponed.

Yang Zhijiang, general manager of Shanghai Business Department of China Merchants futures, said.

In addition, due to the weakening of cotton prices in recent years, the cotton planting area has decreased.

Yang Zhijiang believes that the new cotton production in 2015 is expected to be between 3 million 800 thousand tons and -400 million tons, representing a reduction of 15% in the previous year's 4 million 500 thousand tons.

The mainland's output in the new year is 1 million tons -120 million tons, representing a reduction of about 45% tons in the previous year, and the domestic output in the new year is expected to be 4 million 800 thousand tons -520 million tons, with a median value of 5 million tons, representing a reduction of 23% tons compared with 6 million 500 thousand tons in the previous year.

At the same time, with the end of new cotton picking, the market is also discussing the quality of new cotton.

It is understood that in 2015/2016, new cotton in Xinjiang generally featured short fiber and high horse value.

According to the Bureau of public security data, as of October 12th, the cotton weighted length index has been reduced by 1mm compared with the same period last year. The proportion of cotton less than 28mm is 59%, compared with 14% in the same period last year.

The proportion of horse value B2 gear dropped by 31 percentage points, and C2 of cotton was more than 70%.

From the aspect of fracture strength, the proportion of cotton above S2 dropped from nearly 50% last year to 30%.

In this regard, Yang Zhijiang said that due to the high temperature that lasted for nearly 20 days in Xinjiang from July 20th to August 10th this year, resulting in a considerable area of cotton stagnant growth, peaches, or even premature decay, which affected the yield and quality of cotton. In late September, Xinjiang suddenly entered a big cooling mode.

Therefore, the internal quality of Xinjiang cotton is seriously affected, with short length and high horse value, which will affect the purchasing demand of domestic textile enterprises for high count yarn raw materials.

"Because the cotton length in the new year is generally low, the proportion below 28mm occupies a large proportion, which affects the spinning of high count yarn (such as 40 or more) in textile enterprises. The high spinning enterprises basically do not purchase cotton less than 28mm, but this does not affect the purchase requirements of low count yarn and air spinning.

At the same time, if domestic cotton quota quotas are not allowed, the length of domestic cotton is generally shorter, and the textile high yarn enterprises can only purchase Chen cotton from national storage stock or have to improve the technology to adapt to this situation.

Purchasing manager of a yarn factory in Guangzhou.

Previously, cotton growers have reflected that this year cotton will form a double declining pattern of "production and quality reduction", which seems to be right now.

In addition, although cotton farmers in Xinjiang have subsidies to ensure profits, the cotton farmers in the mainland are confused about the recent market.

Although there are subsidies in the mainland this year, there is still no clear information on how to make up and supplement.

Under such circumstances, most cotton farmers in the mainland are afraid to sell new cotton.

Shortage of funds in the downstream industry chain

Affected by the slow recovery of the global economy and the high inventory of cotton, the domestic cotton market continued to slack.

According to public data, the supply and marketing cooperative system cotton purchased 67 billion 40 million yuan, down 22.9% compared with the same period last year.

Sales of 113 billion 790 million yuan, down 12.4% over the same period last year.

In response, the head of the Ministry of economic development and reform of the supply and Marketing Cooperative pointed out that the spot sale of cotton is very difficult. It is expected that the cotton market will face a grim situation in the fourth quarter, and a new problem of "selling cotton will be difficult".

"Cotton enterprise funding shortage is an important reason for the new cotton procurement.

Due to the lack of funds in the entire textile industry chain, the downstream weaving factories are seriously inadequate, the prices of pure cotton cloth have continued to decline, the inventory of finished goods in weaving mills has increased, large scale funds have been occupied, the shortage of orders and the capital occupied by finished products are serious, which affects the purchase and purchase of cotton yarn by weaving mills. For the mills, the lack of purchasing enthusiasm for cotton yarn in the downstream has also led to an increase in cotton yarn inventory and a decrease in prices in the cotton mill.

Jiangsu Wuxi yarn factory Yang director Chang said.

At the same time, director Yang pointed out that most of the yarn supplied to the weaving mills is not cash payment, but there is still a certain amount of accounts. However, cotton mills generally purchase cash from cotton, and the pressure from the mills is even greater.

The whole industry chain is short of consumption and lacks confidence in the future price rise.

In addition, in recent years, the inner and outer cotton market has shown a strong external and weak pattern.

On the domestic side, despite the expected reduction in cotton production and import control in the new year, however, under the background of high inventory and weak downstream demand, cotton showed a downward trend.

In this regard, Lin Guofa believes that if in the past month, the US cotton is indeed strong, the US cotton December contract rose from 59.7 cents / pound to the current 64.5 cents / pound.

However, if viewed from a large area, in 2015, the United States cotton was in the 59-68 cent / pound box movement.

Domestic cotton in the first half of 2015 mainly in the 13000-13500 yuan / ton box movement, in June to weaken the main, new cotton listed, Zheng cotton prices fell again, now has fallen below the 12000 yuan / ton pass.

Generally speaking, outer cotton is stronger than Zheng cotton, especially in September.

At the same time, a large number of newly built cotton textile enterprises in Southeast Asia and South Asia have occupied the market demand of Chinese cotton and clothing, but are conducive to international cotton demand. With the domestic cotton inventory fundamentals, domestic cotton is still on the way to inventory.

The international cotton sector is still fluctuating near the cost line under the current demand for China's imports, waiting for the next year's output and demand guidance.

"The domestic cotton market is ahead of schedule due to seasonal fluctuations. It is estimated that cotton futures will show a trend of first fall and then rebound after the four quarter. From late October to early November, the market may appear to be" difficult to sell cotton ", and the spot prices of seed cotton and lint futures are all low.

Galaxy futures analyst Chen Xiaoyan said.

Chen Xiaoyan said that from the current inventory and consumption situation, cotton prices will be determined by the market, and the Chinese textile industry must maintain its competitive edge internationally. The existing labor cost advantage is no longer available, and the cost of raw materials must be reduced.

It is estimated that cotton prices will fall before the first half of November, and the possibility of low innovation or even a million yuan will not be ruled out.

Cotton prices rebounded as cotton futures rebounded, and cotton futures prices rebounded as the late new cotton market decreased and bank support increased.

However, for the fourth quarter of cotton futures trend, Yang Zhijiang said, in recent months contract CF1601 because of the high cost of seed cotton purchase, registered warehouse receipts are not economic, so CF1601 lack of warehouse receipts, which will cause CF1601 down kinetic energy is insufficient, CF1601 price falls below 11500 yuan probability is not big, maintain 12000-12800 yuan interval probability.

However, Yang Zhijiang said that far month contract CF1605 was dragged down by grade cotton, and the domestic textile enterprises will increase the purchase demand for the national storage Chen cotton because of the new year's cotton quality problem, which will lead to the national reserve throwing and storing ahead of schedule.

Under the influence of the above factors, the pressure of CF1605 is larger, the performance is weak, and it is unlikely to rise.

Therefore, the futures market will also appear in the recent months and the contract contract differentiation.