PTA Spot Support Is Difficult To Sustain

At present, PTA industry chain downstream production and operation situation is not optimistic, polyester industry losses are serious, the recent low price volume sales strategy, polyester factory initiative to reduce polyester product prices.

After October, the polyester industry has been in the off-season, and the demand will be faced with the cold situation of "frost falling".

From the relevant statistical data, China's textile and garment exports have declined for the 10 consecutive month, and the shrinking orders of enterprises are generally pessimistic about future demand.

In the first three quarters of this year, domestic polyester production increased by 8% over the same period last year, while the demand growth rate was only 5%.

From the start up rate, the current polyester enterprise operating rate of 76%, weaving enterprise operating rate of 73%, with the weak demand of the industry and the whole industry serious losses, polyester industry start up rate will gradually decline.

Therefore, polyester consumption is difficult to form strong support for raw material PTA.

In late October, large domestic manufacturers such as Yanda Shanda and other enterprises stopped production and overhaul, and bought a lot of stock in the market, so that the supply side tightened, PTA spot prices rose significantly, and led futures contracts rose in recent months.

At the same time, PTA inventory is at a low level, the current PTA plant and polyester factory PTA inventory is in the range of 3 to 5 days, the warehouse receipt is only about 37 thousand tons.

In addition, the recent market rumors that Sinopec took over Tenglong aromatics project is also conducive to the spot market speculation.

On the whole, the PTA market is still oversupply, and the tight supply in the spot market is only a short-term phenomenon.

In October 25th, the Yanda Shanda second-line 3 million 750 thousand ton plant began to repair the vehicle ahead of schedule this week, and extended the annual overhaul to January 2016, and planned for about 15 days.

Estimated November

The overall load of the industry will increase significantly, which will exceed 70%.

With the gradual rise of PTA supply, inventory will also be in a cumulative process.

From integration

As for the production device, the current PX- naphtha oil price difference is between 320 and 340 US dollars / ton. Therefore, the PX production equipment of the naphtha route has a processing profit of 20 to 40 US dollars per ton, and the production enthusiasm of the integrated PX device is still there.

From the monomer PX production device, the current PX-MX price difference is about 100 U.S. dollars / ton, MX route production PX has been in a negative profit state, so the monomer PX device production enthusiasm is not strong.

From the PX equipment maintenance situation, from late September to October, Asian market PX device overhaul includes: India mang Grauer OMPL92 10000 ton / year PX installation, Japan JX, Korea Total and so on.

The overhaul of the PX plant is: PetroChina Urumqi Petrochemical 1 million 65 thousand ton / year PX plant, Tianjin Petrochemical 400 thousand ton PX plant, Luoyang petrochemical and so on.

Although Asian market PX devices are overhauled during this period, these devices will be restarted in November, and the supply of PX will gradually increase, which will be relatively bad for the PX market.

In addition, from the monthly import volume of domestic PX, the monthly import volume of PX remained at 1 million tons this year, while the absolute value of exports was relatively small. Therefore, overall, domestic PX supply is still loose.