Europe, Japan, Mom Suffered A Setback In Taiji Dollar

In 2014, the US dollar appreciated 14% against the euro, and the dollar rose 10% again this year. After such a rally, Deutsche Bank concluded that the US dollar rally was not over.

Bloomberg cites Deutsche Bank foreign exchange Alan Ruskin, the head of strategy, said the market expects the fed to make the decision to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. Under this influence, the US dollar is strong and there is still room for growth, but the pace may slow down.

According to Ruskin analysis, Federal Reserve Monetary policy may gradually tighten, while most of the central banks of other countries are boosting economic stimulus. Trade weighted calculations show that the appreciation of the US dollar against major currencies has not ended. He said:

Ruskin wrote in a research report that unlike the past Fed tightening policy, the US dollar is expected to be particularly strong under the Fed's rate hike expectations, and the next upward trend may slow down, and may continue to rise 10% in the next one or two years.

In the short term, the Bank of Paris, France, said the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next month. dollar The rising momentum is also strengthening, and the index for tracking the rise in the US dollar has risen from 17 last week to 42 this week.

In addition, traders predicted the possibility of raising interest rates for the Federal Reserve in December, up from 34% before the Federal Reserve meeting last month to 50%.

Under the influence of Delagi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), the market has been expecting ECB to increase its easing policy in December. But Delagi's latest speech also hinted that ECB may not expand its economic stimulus at the December meeting, pushing the euro on third consecutive trading days on Monday, and the US dollar index is down.

Bloomberg quoted Westpac Banking Corp, currency strategist Sean Callow, said Delagi wanted to make it clear to the outside world that he was open to any sensitive policy in December. This week, the United States will release data on non farm employment, and the market is understandably cautious about the continued strength of the US dollar.

In addition, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged last week, nor did some analysts expect to expand the stimulus policy. Kuroda Higashihiko, governor of the central bank, said that the measures taken by the central bank so far have achieved the desired results. If necessary, the policy will be adjusted and the policy of easing will continue to be implemented until the 2% inflation target is stabilized.

The European Central Bank's stance has struck a blow to the market's expectation that the two regions will expand the stimulus policy, which has eased the strength of the US dollar. As of 1:37 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, the euro fell slightly to 0.08% against the US dollar to 1.0954, while the Japanese yen had almost no change against the US dollar, which was 121.0885.