Ye Guoying Talks About The Trend Of Fixing Market

In terms of technical analysis, entanglement, hesitation and hesitation, the fundamentals, policies and the influence of funds are more important.

From a fundamental point of view, according to the three quarter's main economic indicators GDP released by the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of 6.9% is up to 6.9%. The investment growth is 10.5% and the consumption growth is 10.9%. This shows that the downward pressure on China's economy continues, deflation shows, investment growth slows down, industry is weak and foreign trade is depressed.

Therefore, the steady growth of the fourth quarter is still the key, and monetary policy will continue to be lax, and the rate reduction will continue. Underground pipelines, water conservancy, environmental protection, rail pit and new energy will become an important area of growth.

At the same time, fiscal policy further reduced taxes and cleared fees and reduced pressure for enterprises. The promotion of PPP project also led private capital and policy banks to invest in major projects such as shed reform, water conservancy and Middle West Railway.

It is worth mentioning that the scale of credit in September and the medium and long term loans in the non-financial sector have picked up. The factory price of industrial PPI, computers, telecommunications and other electronic equipment has been upgraded to the right place, while the PPI of production data has narrowed down, and is expected to continue to rebound under the rebound of global commodity prices.

So the four quarter is expected to stabilise.

In particular, the 13th Five-Year plan adheres to economic development as the center, persists in scientific development, speeds up the pformation of the mode of economic development, comprehensively deepens reform, comprehensively administering the country according to law, speeds up the improvement of all aspects of the system and mechanisms, and makes better use of the two markets and two kinds of resources to provide strong driving force and effective guarantee for China's development.

This shows that China's economy can not be hard landing. Instead, it is gradually stabilizing and creating a new economic pattern.

The shape is fluctuating and the trend is still good.

This "form" is the lower line formed by the lower gap of the 59.8 points of the Shanghai Composite Index 3073.3 - 3133.1, and the upper line formed by the gap on the 102 point of 3383.3 - 3490.5. The interval channel of 417 points formed in this channel is repeatedly fluctuated in this channel.

There are pressures that the economy is not really getting better, and there are more chips in the 1 trillion and 500 billion bail outs, and there is no risk of falling interest rates and ample liquidity support.

In this wave, we have repeatedly digested the large number of shadows caused by the stock market disaster, and constantly make up for the imperfections of the rules and regulations for repairing the legal system.

Therefore, this shape will fluctuate, and it will not end simply. But because "the situation is still going well", the economy will be better and the confidence will be better. The popularity will be better and the environment of the stock market will be better.

So we have confidence, hope and dreams that can be realized.

Therefore, we can neither restore the bull market nor step into the bear market, but most likely the bull market in the box.

The speed of the crash and the scale of the crash will have two unexpected characteristics in the second stage, namely, the intensity of the rescue market and the panic of the market. Then the third stage of the recovery market will produce two unexpected characteristics, that is, the longer time span, which may extend beyond half a year, and extend from September to 4 to May next year or even longer. This requires the understanding of the arduous and complex nature of the repair. Secondly, the amplitude of the fluctuation will probably be bottomed up between two gaps in the long term, so as to accumulate enough energy to do more energy, there is a psychological preparation for repeated sprint 4000 points - 4500 points, and then we can take advantage of the policy, economy, capital and other major factors to make a big step and return to the bull market. Therefore, if there are two unexpected characteristics in the first phase of the stock market crash,

Policy aspect.

For the capital market in 2015, especially after the unprecedented stock market crash, the position of the capital market has been unprecedentedly raised, and all kinds of leading and supporting the healthy and stable development of the stock market.

The central high level has attached great importance to the capital market.

Premier Li Keqiang pointed out clearly that a healthy and balanced stock market is related to the overall situation of economic and social development. It is related to deepening the reform of the capital market, taking into consideration the international and domestic expectations for China's economy, and the upgrading strategy of expanding the proportion of direct financing, which is related to whether the 13th Five-Year plan can lay the capital market support.

Since the 6.15 disaster, the management has launched a series of policies, from the increase of enterprises, the reduction of restrictions to the rescue of certificates, the clearance of funds, the clearance of ports, the closure of umbrella trust software, the creation of a healthy and healthy investment environment for the market, and the resolute strike by the SFC on illegal activities. All these indicate that the support of the policy to the stock market has reached a new height.

Capital side.

From the current stock market, on the one hand, on the one hand, in the case of clearing ports, deleveraging and going to the OTC capital allocation, the scale of incremental capital has been reduced correspondingly. The multiplication of leverage funds has been impossible to enlarge, but on the other hand, regular brokerage financing has increased continuously since October.

As of October 27th, there have been 7 consecutive trading days to buy over 100 billion yuan of financing, of which 4 trading days were net buying, has steadily secured trillions of financing platform.

At the same time, from October 12th to the beginning of 16, the number of households started to rise steadily, the average daily growth rate was 59 thousand and 100, the ratio rose by 185%, and the net outflow was also a net inflow.

The net inflow in from October 14th to 23rd was 12 billion 500 million yuan, but this was significantly reduced compared with the previous stock market crash.

In contrast to domestic capital flows to the stock market, global capital also began to flow into China's stock market and inflows $537 million and $636 million for two consecutive weeks.

In the long run, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shanghai, Shanghai, and Shanghai Germany and the SDR

After that, the influx of a large amount of overseas funds will be opened up in multiple channels on incremental funding.

On the capital side, the biggest positive impact on the stock market is the continuous reduction of the central bank's interest rate cut. The loose monetary policy has turned a large number of savings funds relying on risk-free interest rates to start turning. Under the trend of no risk interest rate declining, it will greatly stimulate national risk preferences and continue to start saving and moving. This will provide continuous incremental funds for the stock market.

To sum up, China's stock market has entered the recovery market after the stock market crash.

In the recovery market, as the market stabilizes, the panic of the investing public is gradually subsiding, and as the market bottoms up,

Fermentation, the number of accounts opened in the market, the margin increased with the confidence, and the major funds and agencies gradually increased their positions from empty positions and light warehouses.

But it is closing at the end of the year, so the repair is slow and repeated, and stability is the foundation for next year's market. Therefore, fixing the market is a kind of repeated bottoming.