Short And Short Market Consolidation And Wait-And-See Atmosphere Manufacturers Quotations Basically Stable

Today, the short and short market has consolidated the wait-and-see atmosphere. The quotations of the manufacturers are basically stable. The mainstream of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported to be 6900-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual deal can be discussed.

Fujian polyester market quotation is stable, 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market mainstream newspaper 6700-6900 yuan / ton short delivery, actual paction can be discussed, morning.

After the opening of futures, small strong shocks.

The narrow fluctuation market has lasted for more than a month, and the market is not expected to fluctuate this week.

Attention should be paid to oil price and upstream PTA operation and the operation of polyester and short industries.

Shandong, Hebei, the market is short and short quotation is stable, 1.4 direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 7000-7150 yuan / ton to deliver, actual business negotiations, downstream polyester products sales are flat, polyester short procurement just need.

Market pure polyester yarn quoted price is stable, 32S mainstream quotation 11100 yuan / ton up and down, 45s sales volume is slightly better than other specifications, mainstream quotation 12100 yuan / ton nearby.

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In the near future, the market has revealed that the company may restructure, and it may not be able to produce PTA again during the year. The two sets of new devices that were originally planned for the four quarter will be postponed to next year.

At the same time, the PTA social inventory in the two quarter and the three quarter continued to decline, and now it has dropped to a low level near 1 million 600 thousand tons, making the upper limit of the actual PTA supply capacity in the mid term relatively definite.

In the past, there was a negative correlation between profit and operating rate. However, under the condition that the actual supply capacity is more definite, this negative correlation may be weakened.

At this stage, the effect of PTA enterprises' production reduction may be better, and the driving strategy of PTA leading enterprises will turn to reduce production and improve profits.

Judging from the actual market situation in the near future, in November Yisheng Dalian 3 million 750 thousand tons PTA plant, East China and Southern China about 1000000 tons of PTA installations have overhaul plan.

Therefore, under the current situation that the actual PTA supply capacity of China is more determined, the overall operating rate of PTA will be maintained at or below 65%.

Even though the operation of PTA enterprises has improved significantly, PTA enterprises are above the profit and loss balance line, but we believe that the operating rate will no longer be significantly improved.

In the future, the gross profit margins of PTA enterprises will be limited, and there will be larger imaginary space for them. This will mainly depend on the operation strategy of PTA enterprises.

On the whole, the impact of upstream crude oil and PX on PTA is relatively neutral. The downward trend of PTA price will be relatively limited, and the space of upward fluctuation is relatively large, so it is more appropriate to make PTA more callbacks.