Import Data Integration Of Chemical Fiber Sub Industry In The First Three Quarters

According to customs statistics, 1~9 months, China imported 96 thousand and 400 tons of polyester staple fiber, exported 725 thousand and 800 tons of polyester staple fiber, imported 84 thousand and 500 tons of polyester filament, and exported 1 million 244 thousand and 800 tons of polyester filament.

Imported

115 thousand and 500 tons, 15 thousand and 800 tons of acrylic fiber exported, including 72 thousand and 100 tons of acrylic staple fiber, 7 thousand tons of export, 42 thousand and 200 tons of acrylic fiber tow, 8 thousand and 200 tons of export, 1 thousand and 200 tons of acrylic wool tops and 570 tons of export.

Imports of viscose staple fiber 102 thousand and 900 tons, exports 175 thousand and 800 tons; imports

1 thousand and 500 tons, export 48 thousand and 800 tons.

China's imports in the same period

14 thousand and 800 tons, 35 thousand and 700 tons of pure spandex fiber, 3 thousand tons of imported Spandex Covered Yarn, and 2 thousand tons of Spandex Covered Yarn.

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Industrial chain losses are mainly reflected in PTA production and downstream polyester industry.

According to the PX import price of 800 US dollars / ton, PTA production is above 5000 yuan / ton, and the spot price is between 4700 yuan and 4820 yuan per ton, and the loss per ton is at least 200 yuan.

Polyester, according to the PTA spot price of 4750 yuan / ton, polyester chip prices barely maintain breakeven, polyester staple fiber loss per ton of about 100 yuan, polyester filament DTY loss per ton of 50 to 100 yuan, and polyester filament POY per ton loss margin as high as nearly 400 yuan.

As a result of long-term losses, the overhaul of PTA production enterprises has increased, which has prompted PTA prices to rise in stages. This is also the main reason why PTA performance is stronger than other chemicals in recent years.

However, in the second half of the year, the maintenance of PTA devices will be reduced, and the favorable effects will gradually fade away.

In addition, the low inventory of PTA and polyester factories and the lack of futures warehouse receipts are one of the reasons why the fund has been promoted to PTA. However, the low inventory of spot enterprises is not the result of consumption, but the result of the enterprises' purchase and sale on demand and therefore can not be the reason for supporting the price.

Futures margin is less due to futures discount, according to the closing price of the main contract in November 10th, PTA futures price on the spot price of 50 - 100 yuan / ton.

More importantly, the loss of polyester from the middle of the year reflects the lack of demand to some extent.

To sum up, crude oil is subject to a surge in the US dollar index and ample supply, and the price rebound is highly limited. It is expected that the low position and weak operation pattern will be difficult to change during the year. Therefore, it is difficult for PTA to have a top-down cost driven market.

In addition, the cost support and overhaul of PTA production losses are difficult to change.

On the operation, it is recommended that light duty test run be made between the PTA main contract 1601, 4700 - 4800 yuan / ton, stop loss 4800 - 4820 yuan / ton, and the target level is 4500 - 4550 yuan / ton.