The Euro Is Less Optimistic About The US Dollar Exchange Rate.

From a probability point of view, after the terrorist incident in Paris, the euro is likely to be lower than the US dollar, and the price of US dollar and hedge currency may rise.

The euro is about 1: 1.07 for the US dollar. Once the euro zone situation deteriorates further, the euro will quickly parity with the US dollar or even lower.

The deterioration of the security environment will lead to a sharp rise in trade costs, which is not good news for Global trade and global economic recovery.

Crude oil is the most important commodity.

Crude oil prices have been dropping all the way since the highest price of $147.27 a barrel in 2008.

On the eve of the attack in Paris, US crude oil futures fell below 41 U.S. dollars per barrel and refreshed for over two months, while Brent crude dropped by 5%, the biggest decline in two months.

In November 13th, the International Energy Information Administration (IEA) report pointed out that crude oil inventories reached a record 3 billion barrels, and demand is expected to slow next year.

It is predicted that the international crude oil market will maintain a low probability of consolidation in the future.

Outside the price war, the battle for share in the oil market is intensifying.

According to China News Network quoted foreign media reports, the European share dispute is far from being terminated. Iraq is overtaking Saudi Arabia as the second largest oil supplier in the European market.

At the same time, Iran has also found the buyer of oil once the sanctions have been lifted.

IEA, citing sources familiar with the market, said that once the sanctions were lifted, the Iran government would at least sell more than 400 thousand barrels of oil per day to buyers in Asia and Europe.

The battle for share and the low price of crude oil are unbearable for the Middle East, Russia and other oil producing countries. Venezuela is a warning.

(IMF) pointed out a few weeks ago that the oil price slide caused many Middle East countries to have fiscal deficits.

The balance sheet shows that the non oil GDP medium term fiscal gap in Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia is about 15~25 basis points. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have more than 20 years of fiscal savings, while Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia have less than 5 years of savings.

Even the affluent oil producing countries are undergoing tests, which is of no benefit to the chaotic situation in the Middle East and Europe.

With the restructuring of the system at home and abroad, the cost of economic operation will be higher and the market will be more volatile, including China's capital market.

What is even more frightening is that the current organized terrorist attacks may involve huge underground money laundering and investment channels, such as shorting the euro before attacking France, and allowing market investors to pay for the attack.

The question now is how much can be tolerated for such pipelines, and further tightening up controls is a topic that governments can not get around.

Will the Fed continue to insist on raising interest rates? Let us not say that US consumption figures are not as good as expected. Even if we do not raise interest rates, the US dollar will maintain a strong position in the current global economic situation.

On the morning of November 13th in Beijing, IMF warned the world.

Faced with the risk of long-term "below average" growth, the poverty rate and unemployment rate will be at an unacceptable level.

Fed hawkish officials are hinting at the time to raise interest rates.

On the morning of November 14th, Fisher, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the decision to postpone the first increase in interest rates has helped to offset the resistance brought by the strengthening of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's interest rate increase next month may be appropriate for Beijing.

But it could be a smoke bomb.

In the past meeting, it is impossible to ignore the eye of the global economy and the market.

The current situation may delay the Fed's pace of raising interest rates.

What can China do? In the short term, the internationalization of RMB is likely to be promoted.

The latest news is that Lagarde, President of IMF, said that the staff of the organization had suggested that the Renminbi should be included in the basket of SDR currencies.

The main members of IMF, including the United States, have already indicated that if the RMB reaches the relevant requirements of IMF, they will support the RMB in SDR.

The Executive Board representing the IMF188 Member States will discuss whether to bring the renminbi into the SDR basket in November 30th.

If it is finally formed, it will be the first time that SDR has adjusted its basket since 2001.

RMB is included in the SDR, and the most realistic is that the world will have at least 1 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves into Chinese assets.

This will be a great benefit to China's capital and money market.

But in the long run, we must continue to cope with the weak global economy and the volatile international situation.