Two, The Actual Impact Of The New Rules On The Market Is Limited.

This week, the theme stock movement is obvious.

The private sector believes that the two financial rules have limited practical impact on the market. However, the continued outflow of funds and intraday concussion in Shanghai stock market indicates that there is a short-term risk in the market. It is suggested that conservative investors reduce their positions.

But from an institutional point of view, the next spring market can be laid out early. The theme of the 13th Five-Year plan is the main line of investment.

At present, the two financial rules have little impact on the market.

Through the risk education from June to August, investors are becoming more mature, the market is moving smoothly, and the two financial sum is at a low level.

In addition, because the new rules are not implemented immediately, investors who wish to get more financing may increase their financing this week, so there may be some positive impact on the market funds this week.

Since securities dealers can adjust their margin ratio by themselves, the margin ratio of many brokerages before the new regulation is mostly above 70%, and the new regulation is more about the regulation of leverage rather than the suppression of market behavior.

As of 19, the two financial balance has exceeded 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan. Judging from the steady rise of the two balance, the new regulation did not have a big impact on the market.

According to historical data, in the process of raising interest rates in the United States, the world

The performance will not be very good. The fall of 20% in emerging markets is expected. China's stock market, as a member of emerging markets in the eyes of global investors, is also reasonable for foreign investors to withdraw.

However, China's stock market has its own operational logic. The impact of US interest rate hikes will be reflected in the short term, but the medium-term trend will not change.

The near future

The continuous net outflow is due to the fact that the A shares have rebounded more than Hong Kong stocks during the period, which has led to an increase in the AH premium and increased investor willingness to withdraw funds to the Hongkong market.

But this state will not last long. With the reduction of premium and the implementation of various policies in the late stage, funds will return to the A share market.

Due to the rapid rebound of the stock index in the early stage, the profit making funds will choose some profits to leave. In the short term, there will be a demand for shock consolidation in the market.

In this process, the characteristics of the plate rotation will be more obvious. It is suggested that investors should not follow suit and do not rush too quickly, and gradually layout in the concussion.

Short - term and short - term games will continue.

The end of the year is coming.

We should pay attention to the pressure of capital side and pay attention to the change of monetary policy.

The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in October, and at the same time reduced the deposit reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points to the standard financial institutions.

This week, many banks such as Beijing bank and Nanjing bank became standard financial institutions. Since November 16th, the RMB deposit reserve ratio has dropped from 14.5% to 14%.

In the previous 6 targeted reductions, according to the number of households calculated, 97% of the financial institutions enjoyed the policy of directional reduction.

In addition, since September 15th, the central bank has decided to reform the deposit reserve assessment system. There is an analysis that the reform of the deposit reserve assessment system has released a liquidity of 700 billion yuan for the banking sector.

Generally speaking, the funds are in good condition, but the closer to the end of the year, the more attention should be paid to risks.