RMB Basket To Boost Financial Reform

At present, analysts believe that if the renminbi can finally be accepted into the SDR basket at the end of this month and become the fifth currency in the basket of SDR currencies, it will be a win-win option, which will provide impetus for the reform of the IMF and the reform of SDR, and will also play a prominent role in the internationalization of RMB.

IMF policymakers are considering modifying the calculation method of currency weights in their basket of currencies to reduce the importance of export share, which may make the weight of the renminbi less than the results calculated by the existing formula.

Even so, a former International Monetary Fund Officials believe that the weight of the renminbi in SDR may still exceed the pound and yen, but not higher than the US dollar and the euro. Statistics show that the current weight of the SDR currency basket is composed of US $41.9%, euro 37.4%, Sterling 11.3% and yen 9.4%.

Standard Chartered Bank expects RMB to be included SDR In the next 5 years, it will attract 4 to 7 trillion yuan (626 billion to 1 trillion and 100 billion US dollars) of funds into China. Moodie said that this will constitute a positive impact on China's credit rating. Standard Chartered also raised its position from 1% to about 5%.

When the renminbi is expected to soon be included in the SDR, there are reports that some experts are starting to estimate. RMB The weight is included in the basket of SDR currencies. The results calculated by IMF staff in July this year show that this proportion may reach 14% to 16%. HSBC also estimated that the weight of the yuan would be around 14%.

Even if the International Monetary Fund can accept the RMB to join the SDR, the specific implementation will also take place in 2016, which will give the financial market sufficient time to reflect this change. At present, some big banks believe that the RMB exchange rate will be pressurized after China's accession to the SDR, or a new round of depreciation or a one-off depreciation will occur. However, some economists do not agree with this view.

Some analysts believe that, in the medium to long term, the diversification of the global market will benefit the RMB. The use of RMB as reserve currency will provide support for the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate. Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that after the RMB is included in the SDR, there will be no more than 30 billion yuan in Renminbi assets demand in the short term.