China's Exports Have Entered The "New Normal".

For the four consecutive month of decline in China's exports, the most popular explanations in the market include China's relative competitiveness loss, European and American manufacturing backflow, exchange rate factors and so on.

Founder and securities macroeconomic analyst Guo Lei and Lu Liangliang believe that these popular explanations are not convincing.

In the research report published in December 2nd, Guo Lei and Lu Liangliang analyzed the import structure of China's three major export target countries and the manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States, and concluded that China's exports remained relatively competitive in general, and although there was a real backflow in the US manufacturing sector, there was no significant return on manufacturing in Europe.

In addition, for IMF this week will be

In the basket of special drawing rights (SDR), Guo Lei and Lu Liangliang believe that this will cause the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate to intensify in the long run, but will not significantly affect China's exports.

In terms of quarterly size, China's exports over the past 1995-2001 years have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%, and the average quarterly growth rate over the next ten years is more than 20%.

However, after the high growth rate of 40.8% in the second quarter of 2010, China's exports left high growth and began to appear downward.

Along with the growth of exports, the import share of China's three main export target countries (the US, EU and Japan) has increased year by year, rising from 19.1%, 18.5% and 22.1% in 2010 to 21.2%, 19.9% and 24.6% respectively.

This indicates that Chinese products remain relatively competitive in general.

The "re industrialization" policy of the United States has also attracted some manufacturing enterprises that originally distributed in Asia or other low cost countries to pfer to the United States. Does this promote the overall downward trend of China's exports?

To verify this, fangzheng securities classified the export commodities into 10 categories according to the international standard for industrial classification (SITC).

Data analysis shows that there is a reflux in the US manufacturing industry.

However, if we observe the export of labor-intensive products, we will find two phenomena:

First, the amount of labour intensive products exported to the United States after 2011 did not decline because of the "US manufacturing backflow".

Two, the proportion of labor-intensive products exported to the United States for labor intensive exports has been decreasing since 2002, that is, the export of China's labor-intensive products has become increasingly fragmented. Therefore, the reduction of imports of such products by the United States will not have a significant negative impact on China's exports.

The data also show that there is no significant difference in Europe.

After the return of labor intensive products in China in 2010, the share of labor intensive products imported by the European Union began to increase synchronously from the same period last year. Therefore, there is no problem of "reflux of manufacturing industry" in China, which has caused the problem of the downward trend of China's export growth.

According to ordinary logic, it is believed that the downward trend of exports can be explained by the decline in external demand and the increase in domestic demand.

In the above research report, fangzheng securities also agreed that the decline in external demand has been a drag on China's exports, because 08 years of financial crisis have led to a deterioration of the overseas economic environment.

However, fangzheng securities questioned the statement that the rise in domestic demand caused China's exports to decline.

China's "four trillion plan" did cause domestic problems.

Sharp rise.

However, the main reason for the negative export growth in the past 09 years is that the financial crisis has led to a sharp decline in the external economic situation.

If 2010-2014 years of export growth is the result of overheating domestic demand, it should be followed by a year-on-year increase in imports.

But in fact, in the past 2009-2010 years, the gradual implementation of the "four trillion plan" did bring about an increase in imports year-on-year, and significantly higher than the year-on-year export, but at the same time, export growth also picked up rapidly.

More importantly, during the period 2012 -2014, there was no obvious change in China's domestic demand, and the export growth rate remained a downward trend, thus eliminating the explanation that the rise in domestic demand led to the downward trend of exports.