Cotton Prices Will Shift Downward In 2015, Zheng Cotton Will Usher In A Downward Trend.

Over the past two years, the domestic textile industry has been sluggish, and the number of cotton imports has been shrinking, but the number of yarn imports continues to increase.

In terms of operating rate, it starts with orders and basically does not retain too many finished products.

The focus of cotton prices shifted downward in 2015, and the nationwide reduction in 2015/2016 did not bring any warmth to the Zhengzhou cotton market.

With the coming of the Spring Festival, the market factors are gathering.

There may be a wave of downward trend.

Sales of new cotton are over half while low-grade cotton is unsalable.

This year's spot sales are similar to that of last year. Textile mills are looking for high grade flowers in the spot market, and low grade sales are not ideal.

In the early years of seed cotton listing last year, many spot traders and ginning plants rushed to the Xinjiang plant to seize cotton and a large number of lint piled up in the intermediate links.

Many enterprises choose to store up goods while waiting for the peak season to come, but demand can not keep up.

After that, a large number of low class flowers were left in hand, and enterprises suffered varying degrees of losses.

In the end, only those "fast forward and fast out" enterprises can barely keep their profits.

This year, the middleman from

At the beginning, it was very cautious not only to catch the quality of new flowers, but also to pay attention to the purchase price.

Some enterprises, in the difficult spot sales, pay more attention to hedging opportunities. The best way to cash in the remaining cotton is to make warehouse receipts. The price discovery function of the futures market will guide these cotton to a reasonable price range.

Domestic textile industry downturn

Over the past two years, the textile industry has undergone a rapid decline.

The downward trend of the macro economy caused the domestic consumer demand to be depressed, and the cash flow of enterprises was tight. The textile mills basically adopted the purchasing pattern of buying and using with the purchase, and the general commercial stocks were in the 20 to 30 days.

In terms of operating rate, it starts with orders and basically does not retain too many finished products.

In the past, the domestic economy has greatly increased, and continuously pushed up the cost of manufacturing industry. The high cost of materials and the high wage cost have led to the domestic manufacturing industry no longer competitive advantage in the international market.

On the contrary, production advantages of some emerging Southeast Asian countries such as India and Vietnam show that China's textile share begins to shift to these countries.

In addition, the number of cotton imports has been shrinking in China, but the number of yarn imports continues to increase.

India and Vietnam yarns are constantly flowing into China with price advantage. Domestic cotton consumption and cotton imports have been pformed into yarn imports. The development of textile mills is no more than several choices. One is to abandon the production of low count yarn and turn to produce high count yarn or special yarn. The two is to reduce the price of yarn and compete with India and Vietnam.

As a result, domestic demand fell and cotton prices descended.

Dumping or resurgence of the market

A few years of storage and storage made the national reserve accumulated 11 million tons of inventory.

At the end of 2014/2015, the state dropped its reserves and the results were in sight. The planned volume of 1 million tons was only 60 thousand tons.

There is a view that the state store cotton is "a tiger in a cage". Since it is in a cage, there is no need to worry too much.

But I believe that this tiger is always released, and once released, there will be no small movement.

In addition, some people think that the national cotton store is no longer suitable for spinning, and the stock of national reserve is difficult to plate into actual supply.

The author thinks that it depends on the price.

As long as the national cotton prices are low enough,

With the profits of these cotton, the digestion of stored cotton will not be a problem.

In June this year, the international cotton conference was held, and the cotton price fell down after the officials of the NDRC confirmed the news of the dumping.

Therefore, the dumping price largely determines the ceiling of cotton prices next year.

In addition, after the dumping and storage in July, the state accelerated the digestion of cotton reserves as a big probability event.

Recently, information about dumping and storage has been released, and the market has speculated about the time and price of dumping.

The author believes that there is no need to be too rigid in specific time points. As long as the state gives clear signals of dumping and storage, the market will give a reasonable price.