Lang Xianping'S Interpretation Of Risks And Opportunities In Future Investment Market

The 2015 year is doomed to be an extraordinary year. In the past more than a year, we have to face a series of events such as the world economic malaise, the European debt crisis continuing to ferment, and the business tycoons such as Li Jiacheng's collective withdrawal and investment orientation.

At the same time, China has been relying on investment and boosting the negative effects of the economy for more and more years. For this reason, the government has put forward a new slogan of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation", and has also made a new decision on output capacity. However, after the frequent introduction of various new policies, it has not fundamentally solved the substantive problems of China today. In such a complex and changeable investment environment, how should we deal with it?

After accumulating for more than a year, I finally sort out the nature of the investment market in the past time and organized it into a book publishing so as to help more ordinary people find the essence of things after complicated economic phenomena and identify the true face of the investment market. The book is divided into two parts, from two aspects: investment environment and investment field. The main contents are related to important events in international and domestic investment markets.

From the perspective of international investment environment. The US led trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) reached a preliminary agreement on 5 October, which is widely interpreted as a strategy for the us to contain China. The main media interpreted this as follows:

In October 7th, the US foreign policy website issued a document saying that TPP brings the following possibility: the future rules of the global economy will be written on the premise that the influence of the United States occupies a dominant position.

In October 7th, VOA said the TPP agreement threatened to lose China's chance to formulate Global trade rules and standards in twenty-first Century.

In October 6th, the Xinhua news agency said that "full coverage" and "high standard" were the main features of the TPP agreement, hoping to reshape the trade rules of Asia Pacific and the world as a sample.

In October 8th, the Shanghai Securities Journal issued a statement that the dust settled in TPP marked the beginning of the new round of disputes over international trade rules. The United States, through the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), tried to implement the high standard trade and investment rules that represent the interests of developed countries.

After analyzing the relevant reports of the media at home and abroad, you will find that the essence of the matter is not the US war against China, but the challenge of capital to sovereignty. Then I throw a question: who represents the interests of big capitalists, big assets and transnational capital in the two parties of the United States? You will tell me the Republican Party! Because everyone thinks so, and Obama's Democratic Party represents the poor. In fact, I tell you what party is not important in front of capital. Why do you see this?

On the afternoon of June 24th, in the bill authorized by Obama to carry out the TPP negotiations, the US Senate passed the trade promotion authorization act with 60 votes in favour and 37 votes against it. Among the 60 votes, the Republican Party has 47 votes and the Democratic Party has 13 votes; among the 37 votes, the Democratic Party has 30 votes and the Republican Party has 7 votes. The Republican Party is still the main force in favor. Obama, who is talking about TPP, supported by the Republican Party, is powerless both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the face of transnational capital. What is the essence of TPP? TPP tried to extend the "ISDS" mechanism to the multilateral mechanism which is usually only in bilateral terms. Once this becomes a new international rule, what agreement is not important - the interests of the company will surpass the sovereign interests of the state. Transnational corporations can apply to third party organizations that they employ to sue sovereign states for sovereign state compensation. But a sovereign state can not accuse an enterprise, that is to say, it is a one-way power. ISDS also has the most favored nation treatment (MFN) claim. What does this mean? For example, if Vietnam builds a factory at zero land price for a Canadian enterprise, an American company pays 100 yuan to buy a factory. As long as companies in the United States discover this, it can directly sue the Vietnamese government and claim for compensation. Do you think there is something similar to the Treaty of redress and loss of money signed by the late Qing government in the late Qing Dynasty? In fact, the essence of the whole TPP incident is that transnational corporations want to be a sovereign state in the past. This is the international environment we are in. Against this background, let us turn back to the United States. exchange rate War. The United States has plundered Latin America and Southeast Asia through three rounds of exchange rate wars. In the current situation, the United States wants to raise the butcher's knife to more countries, including China, in the new round of interest rate hikes.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why IMF and the world bank will become the accomplices of multinational corporations headed by big US companies, and how difficult it is for China BRIC banks to establish a fair and just international financial order. Similarly, it is not difficult to understand why China's leading Asian investment banks are rejected by the US and Japan and are embraced by developing countries. In such an international environment, we challenge again and again to unfair international rules of the game, but this does not mean that we are strong enough. On the contrary, the United States remains the cornerstone of global economic stability. Once Wall Street has caught a cold, the global economy still needs to "take medicine" together.

With China Economics As the growth rate slows down, the property market has entered a new normal. Now the fundamentals are manifested in the following: price increases, falling demand, falling prices and rising demand. It will not plummet, nor will it skyrocket. The price fluctuation of the property market is also more regular. We take residential buildings as an example. First, whether there are local characteristics, such as the city center, railway station, temporary lake and so on; second, is it a school district room; third, is it a subway room; fourth, is it just needed housing? The more these four conditions are satisfied, the more normalized the performance is, and the more consistent with the laws of economics. Those very real estate, such as "ghost town", have no school, no subway, nor just need room, just like the clothes in stock, no one wants, the result will fall. In this regard, we selected 123 different cities to do a detailed survey, which is consistent with this rule.

In financial markets, the biggest advantage now is to issue private banking licences. However, I am not very optimistic about it compared with the admiration of most people. Why? Because most private banks do not have a correct guiding ideology, blindly pursue bigger and stronger. What are the serious challenges faced by private banks? First, facing the monopolistic advantages of state-owned banks; second, the cost of private banks is much higher than that of the four major industries; third, the shortage of money will become the norm; fourth, low interest will become history. Therefore, the correct way to develop private banks is not simply to be bigger and stronger, but to focus on four industries which can not be seen or can not serve. Among them, the example of Longtai bank is worth learning. Another booming industry is P2P Internet finance, which serves four industries that are not accessible. To some extent, P2P Internet finance has established China's legal private interest rate. Investor purchase P2P When the product is sold, it will be clearly told how long it will take and how much the annual yield will be.

A standardized P2P platform will have third party fund trusteeship, a Guarantee Corporation guarantee, or a platform's own capital compensation. In the case of controllable risk, the annual interest rate can reach 10% to 15%. This is China's private interest rate. However, we should remind investors that with the growth of the P2P market, there are many non-standard P2P companies in the name of Internet finance. In the book of Shuangcheng, Dickens said that this is the best and the worst of times. Now, in the volatile investment market, this sentence still applies. We must always wake ourselves up. This is a time when risks and opportunities coexist. While pursuing the maximization of interests, we must learn to clear our minds and see the essence of events in time.

The above is the international investment environment we are facing. So where are the opportunities for investors? Looking at the developed regions of the world, I regard Europe as the first choice. Why? Would you say that the European debt crisis is not very serious? Is Germany not lending a lot of money to Greece? Yes, it is precisely because Germany lent a lot of money to Greece, so it will not allow the European crisis to spread and erupt. In essence, this is Germany's shirking its responsibilities. I call it "transfer payment within the EU". At this stage, Germany will not really abandon these countries. It is not moral reasons, but interests. Of course, the violent terrorist incidents in Paris may lead to short time capital pressure to return to the United States. I believe this is temporary, especially when Europe's policy towards the Middle East is stable.

Let's first talk about the stock market that worries everyone. I believe that the volatility of this stock market will keep all shareholders fresh. The stock index soared from 2300 points in October 2014 to 5178.19 in June 12th, 2015, and then turned down, one month, July 8th to 3500, and August to 3000. Everyone was confused when he lost money or earned money. I always believe that despite the interference of external factors, there are many things that we can not very accurately judge the future trend. But history is always strikingly similar. If you do not analyze the essence of the whole event now, you will not be able to escape successfully in the next disaster. In my book, I analyze the fluctuation of the stock market in detail, including the lifting effect of policy factors and the decline of cash flow of large investors. Next time, you can clearly know which factors can affect the fluctuation of stock price and how to judge the trend of stock market.