China'S GDP Is Expected To Increase By About 6.9%.

The Bank of China released the "2016 economic and financial outlook report". It is estimated that China's GDP will grow by about 6.9% in 2015 and CPI will rise by about 1.4%.

2016 is the opening year of China's "13th Five-Year plan", and the economic situation is still grim. It is estimated that GDP will grow by about 6.8%, a slight slowdown compared with 2015, and CPI will rise by about 2%.

Chen Weidong, deputy director of the International Finance Research Institute of Bank of China, believes that in 2016, China's economy was hard to say because of the external environment, "old worries and new worries".

As the global economic growth is weak, China's early steady growth policy is playing a significant role and the new economic momentum is still in the making. Therefore, overall, China's economic growth in 2016 will be slightly slower than that in 2015.

However, considering the slow pace of global economic growth, it is not easy for China to achieve GDP growth of around 6.8%.

The report points out that the pformation of China's economic development momentum in 2016 will bring more new business growth points, such as the "one belt along the way" construction, the Yangtze River economic belt, the coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei and other new growth spaces. The new forms of marine economy, network economy and other new industries are emerging. New industries such as energy conservation, environmental protection, intelligent manufacturing and high-end equipment will continue to grow, and cross-border businesses and green finance will also be developed.

Therefore, credit will maintain a relatively fast growth to support economic restructuring and pformation and upgrading.

In addition, the RMB is still under pressure of depreciation in the short term, but the range is moderate and controllable.

Zhou Jingtong, head of macroeconomic and policy at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, said that considering the global economic growth in 2016 and the division of major national monetary policies, the initial rate of US dollar interest rate increase would not be too great, and the devaluation of RMB would be controllable.

From the domestic perspective, the policy of steady growth in the early stage is playing a significant role, and the future policy is still loosening. The steady growth of consumption and frequent hot spots, and the overall stability of the real estate market, all contribute to this.

Keep running steadily.

At the same time, the whole society is expected to gradually stabilize the economic, political and social new normal, which is conducive to promoting economic activities of the main economic entities.

At the same time, the global economic recovery is weak, and China's exports still face many challenges and difficulties. In addition, the total demand remains weak, and the problem of overcapacity continues. Some financial and financial risks still deserve attention, which will bring uncertainty to the steady and fast economic growth.

The report predicts that China's overall price level will remain low in 2016, and that excess capacity will still be a major constraint on the development of the real economy.

Consumption pairs

The contribution rate and pull will remain at a higher level; investment, especially manufacturing investment, is subject to a double squeeze of poor profit and poor sales, and the probability of continued downtrend will be larger. The growth of imports and exports will be rebounded by the low base in 2015.

The report also predicts China next year.

The era will continue, money supply will remain ample, and the stock market will enter the period of rehabilitation.

At the same time, the RMB is still under pressure of depreciation in the short term, but the range is moderate and controllable.

Zong Liang, deputy director of the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, believes that in 2016, there are two factors contributing to the growth of favorable money supply: first, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, and monetary policy will continue to maintain broad keynote; two, with the promotion of the scale of local government debt replacement, investment in local government bonds such as deposit companies will further expand, and the ability to derive money through the banking system will be enhanced.

At the same time, under the background that China's interest rate liberalization is almost complete, the Central Bank of China or the gradual weakening of generalized money (M2) as the intermediary target of the policy will give M2 greater flexibility.