The United States Will Also Face The Test Of Economic Cold Winter.

On Monday, the US stock market closed down, oil prices plummeted nearly 6%, pressure on the stock market, energy stocks led the market, oil giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil fell more than 2.5%, dragging down the stock index.

Goldman Sachs released a research report today to analyze the impact of climate change on climate change.

The impact of trend.

The bank found that the US economic growth slowed down significantly in the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. The exceptionally cold winter weather is one of the reasons. Two weather indicators, especially temperature and snowfall, are particularly important. The five sectors of construction, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, foreign trade and manufacturing industry are most affected by the weather, and the elasticity is the highest. Investors can grasp the rhythm of high dropping and low absorption. Once the extreme cold or Snowstorm Weather occurs in the first quarter of next year, the number of employment will drop sharply, and the Fed's interest rate will be relaxed.

Winter is coming, and the United States will face it.

The test of cold winter.

According to Goldman Sachs statistics, the US economic growth decelerated significantly in the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. The cold winter weather is one of the reasons.

The first is the deviation degree of "cold days" relative to seasonal normal level.

The two is the regional snowfall index, which scores the hundreds of large-scale snowstorms to measure the social impact of snowfall.

First,

It is found that both temperature and snowfall have an impact on economic growth.

Specifically, when the heating days increased by 1 standard deviations, the GDP growth rate / current activity index (CAI) would drop by 0.4 /0.1 percentage points respectively, while the snowfall index would rise by 1 standard deviations, and GDP growth and CAI would drop by about 0.3 percentage points.

Secondly, Goldman Sachs found that weather conditions do not agree with different sectors of the economy.

By comparing the effects of weather variables on the major economic indicators, the different industries in the gross domestic product data and the different sectors in the employment report, we find that the weather has a great impact on the construction industry, retail trade, leisure travel, foreign trade and so on.

The impact is usually the largest.

This means that the warm winter and the cold winter have the greatest impact on the 5 plates and the highest elasticity is affected by the weather. Investors can make short selling spreads according to the weather forecast.

Finally, Goldman Sachs found that weather variables had an important but more subtle impact on the winter employment report.

According to the state data, the trend of the weather is very important in the month, and the weather condition is very critical.

It has been estimated that the increase in the employment rate of the 1 standard deviations in the cold month and the reference snowfall increased by 35 thousand respectively.

In the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, the average temperature in the United States was significantly lower than the 10 annual average temperature, followed by an obvious deceleration of the economy.

Goldman Sachs statistics found that the two weather indicators of temperature and snow have the greatest impact on the economic trend.

The bank pointed out that if the United States continues to suffer from extreme cold weather and Blizzard disaster this year, the number of employment will probably decline sharply, and at the same time, it will restrict the frequency and amplitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.