The Decline Of Traditional China And The Rise Of New China

The current financial fever is beneficial to the development of the securities and futures industry. Although the futures market is also full of twists and turns, the development trend of the futures industry is irresistible.

The proportion of financial contribution to China's GDP is increasing.

In the first half of this year, the contribution of finance to GDP has increased to 30%.

The third quarter has dropped, but 20% have not been seen in Chinese history.

How do we understand this phenomenon? Because of the long-term industrial deflation and overcapacity, the proportion of manufacturing industry in GDP has declined, and the GDP created by finance has increased.

This phenomenon is not a short-term phenomenon. It will not be possible to wait for another "slack season". This financial contribution will decrease as a whole, the investment driven economy is going down to a higher level.

For 2016, I think China's economy is the most difficult year. This is very obvious, compared with 4 years ago, when Premier Wen said "China's economy is the most difficult year of this year", the economy is much more difficult.

Although the economy may be the most difficult since the reform and opening up in 2016, China's economy may be even more difficult in 2017, so I do not think China's economy will be bottomed out in 2016. China's GDP growth will still be downhill, but this is not necessarily a bad thing, because structural adjustment is going on in the next line, and the decline of traditional industries will be accompanied by the rise of new industries.

In the stock market, it is reflected in the small and medium-sized board, the long-term bull market of the gem, and the weakness of the 50 and 180 board of Shanghai Stock Exchange.

According to statistics, in the first three quarters of 2015, after deducting non recurring gains and losses, the loss of the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen's main board was close to 30% while that of the gem was only 10%.

Recent exchanges with various entrepreneurs find that there is a huge gap in view of the economy.

On the one hand, entrepreneurs in traditional industries are worried about their faces. The state basically relies on borrowing new and old to maintain their livelihood. The private sector is rigid in the debt chain. On the other hand, entrepreneurs in the emerging industries are very busy and are busy receiving a group of prime managers in PE, VC and two tier markets.

It's really ice and fire.

Why is the capital market ushered in a good period?

In the case of changes in the allocation of assets for residents, before 2000, bank deposits were mainly used as the main means of financial management for residents, because there was no lack of financial products or financial products at that time, although the stock market had also developed for 10 years by 2000, but the stock market had not changed.

It is still relatively small. At the time when I remember, around 2000, the market value of the stock market was about 3 trillion.

So its scale is very small.

At that time, the residents' financial management was mainly based on the deposit of banks.

From 2000 to 2013, that stage entered the era of real estate. The allocation of residents' assets was mainly for real estate. In addition, we also had a lot of physical assets, related to precious metals and commodities, such as buying mines or gold, and buying oil wells, which were generally done before 2013. They even went overseas to buy oil fields in Canada and buy copper mines in Chile.

That era is actually an era of physical investment. As the sales area of real estate hit a record high in 2013, the investment era of physical assets came to an end.

In recent years, the area of real estate sales is lower than that in 2013. I estimate that 2013 is the highest year of real estate sales in China.

After 2014, the asset allocation of the residents stepped into the era of financial products. Because of the economic downturn, interest rates were also lowered, and interest rates were cut in 2014. Then, interest rates continued to cut, and the types of financial products were greatly enriched.

Stock index futures were also greatly developed in 2014 and 2015, such as the Shanghai Stock Index 50 index and the China Securities Index 500 index futures.

The futures market is frustrated. The stock market crash is only a small setback in the historical stage. It does not change the trend of the development of the financial products era, nor does it change the general trend of further development of the futures industry.

In terms of meaning, we did usher in a good era for the development of the industry. For the financial industry or the capital market, the banking industry also includes banks, but banks are now growing mainly by intermediary businesses. These capital market businesses and asset management businesses are also developing very fast. They are in a very great opportunity for development.

We are now from the excessive allocation of physical assets to the reduction of configuration, and the financial assets should be allocated from low to standard. In this process, the related businesses in the capital market will develop very fast.

On the other hand, many industries are overcapacity.

This leads to economic decline and interest rate decline. Our aging population also corresponds to these phenomena. I think the prosperity of the capital market is actually very long-term. It is the result of the end of the physical investment era, such as the aging problem of Chinese population, has it happened in Chinese history?

Recently, I have been participating in various banking and trust meetings, such as the bank card cooperation conference and the silver letter cooperation conference, which shows that the interbank business of financial institutions has been developing very fast. This also shows that the status of the entire financial sector in the economy has been improved unprecedentedly.

Of course, this promotion comes from two aspects. On the one hand, the demand side, that is, the demand for financial products has increased substantially. By the end of 9 this year, the balance of financial products of banks has reached 20 trillion. Other products such as trust products, insurance products, or equity products have been greatly developed.

In this regard, the allocation of assets of residents has shifted, mainly in the real estate market, the allocation of real estate is too much, and there should be more financial products in the future.