Liu Xiaobo Saw Through The Investment Opportunities In 2016.

At the end of the year, the major research institutions are releasing their investment strategies in 2016. I also join in the fun to predict the investment opportunities in 2016.

The SFC will follow the line of "let go of the rhythm first and then liberate the price", and gradually return the power of issuing and listing shares to the market and enterprises.

The unprecedented expansion era of China's stock market is coming, and the whole pition period can be as long as one or two years.

2016

It is harder to fry than in 2015: in the first half of the year, policies can basically control the trend of the stock market; in the second half of this year, with the acceleration of expansion, the influence of market forces will increase.

The high point will appear in the first half of the year, followed by wave down, and the market valuation will enter the "registration era" from the "examination and approval system era".

Gem is very risky. Quite a lot of stock prices will be cut down, even ninety percent off, eighty percent off!

From the two level market, the biggest investment opportunity of Chinese stock market is Hong Kong stock.

At present, Hong Kong stocks are not only the value depressions of China's stock market, but also the value depressions of global stock markets. Only a few stock markets such as Russia and Egypt are cheaper than Hong Kong stocks.

The RMB exchange rate will be depreciated to the US dollar in September 30, 2016 before being included in the pitional period of the SDR basket. Because China and the United States are in different economic cycles, forcing the RMB exchange rate to be costly is also unfair to the manufacturing industry.

The rate of depreciation is less than 10%.

In the first half of the year, the central bank will continue to cut interest rates. The one-year fixed deposit rate will be lower than the CPI year-on-year increase. The overnight interest rate of interbank lending will approach CPI or even lower than CPI.

No risk

Continue to go down and push asset prices up.

The country's rescue of the property market or more radical policies, such as tax deduction, government procurement backlog of commercial housing and so on, will show signs of warming in many cities, and the prices of first tier cities and strong second tier cities will continue to rise.

For ordinary people, 2016 is a very difficult investment year, the probability of being "wool" is very great.

In particular, the stock market is full of temptations and traps.

If there is no place to go, it is recommended to pay attention to ordinary residential areas such as Nanjing, Changsha and Zhengzhou, which are "strong second tier cities" with obvious population growth.

As the value depressions of the first tier cities, the Guangzhou property market also has the potential to make up for inflation.

Of course, the north, the upper and the deep housing prices can still be good for a long time.

If you have the ability, of course, you need to configure some.

Whether it's in Europe or in the United States, it's better than laying eggs in a basket.

The central bank will have a reduction of about 6 times. The M2 growth rate is likely to exceed 14%, reaching a new high in recent years.

This means that ample liquidity is good for both the property market and the stock market.

Due to the landing of the IPO registration system in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, as well as the start of the "emerging industry board" in the Shanghai stock market, coupled with the vitality brought by the market stratification to the "new three boards", it is difficult to predict the winter of China venture capital, which is widely predicted by the market, in 2016.

The upsurge of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" may continue to heat up.

P2P and private lending will be more "run" phenomenon, but the real collapse may not appear because liquidity is too ample.

Commodity prices have a good chance of bottoming out in 2016.