Both The Economy And The Stock Market Are Facing A Dilemma.

The economic downturn is a long-term result of the aging of the population. What we need to worry about is that in the pitional period, enterprises are overburdened by debt. Now the bubble has penetrated into all areas of the economy, or has lost the qualification of "broken arms".

The economic downturn is obvious to all, but it basically depends on the aging of population structure. Along with the slowing down of population flow, the urbanization rate has slowed down, which has affected the real estate industry, automobile industry, and other industries such as steel, cement and nonferrous metals.

Compared with last year, the number of migrant workers has not increased this year, the first time in the past 30 years.

Migrant workers no longer enter the city, that is, the urbanization rate is no longer raised, so China's urbanization has reached the late stage.

Now the economy is facing the problem of demographic dividend disappearing.

Moreover, the level of urbanization is relatively low. Population flows from the three or four tier cities to the second tier cities will change the regional structure, which is also related to the demand for financial management. The issuance of financial products is all in big cities, because large cities have accumulated more and more population, and the affluent classes are basically concentrated in big cities.

The downward process of the economy is long term, because in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the growth rate has been fast.

But unlike other countries in pition, China's debt level is too high when the economy slows down.

According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, at the end of 9, the debt balance of state-owned and state holding enterprises amounted to 78 trillion yuan, accounting for 118% of the GDP share in 2015, 2 times the global average level, while the balance of loans from Chinese banks to enterprises was 70 trillion yuan.

That is to say, the debt ratio of state-owned enterprises exceeds the loan balance of banks to enterprises, and has not yet been counted as private enterprises.

In the early stage of economic pformation, the debt ratio of enterprises in Japan, South Korea, Germany and Germany was very low.

Therefore, it is estimated that the reform of state-owned enterprises and the tax system will be carried out next year.

It will be relatively advanced.

Blue chip and emerging industries alike

There are more investment opportunities in 2016, because next year is the first year of the opening of 13th Five-Year, but it is mainly focused on emerging industries, such as environmental protection, energy saving, pportation and communication, medical education, cultural tourism, Internet and other IT technology and traditional industries.

Most of the traditional industries are overflowing, and the emerging industries and service industries are in the ascendant.

But it does not mean abandoning value investment. It should be a blue chip underestimation and a new industry.

As for the market trend, the A share market still has a certain rising space, and the rise and fall will be more balanced.

In 2016, it may be a market with narrower fluctuation and more structural opportunities than trend.

The future is still very optimistic, but the market is not very optimistic, because the valuation is too high, too much money, popular saying is "leek" too much, but this stubble "leek" cut, other "leek" is not willing to come again, then the game can not play.

The problems faced by China's stock market are just as difficult as those faced by the Chinese economy.

Next year, capital is still loose.

On the whole, the asset allocation of residents is from the excessive allocation of physical assets to the reduction of allocation, and financial assets should be allocated from low to standard. In this process, the related businesses in the capital market will develop very fast.

The price of capital market is influenced by the two sides of the demand side and the supply side. If the supply increases substantially, the valuation level of financial products must be unfavourable.

Of course, from the perspective of the supply of funds in 2016, there are also favorable factors. For example, the pension market is a big probability event. If the pension scale is 2 trillion yuan and the upper limit is 30%, there should be 600 billion of the capital going into the stock market.

There are also a large number of bank financial products should be allocated part of the rights and interests of products, coupled with the increase in insurance funds, household savings to the market and so on.

So in general, the supply of funds in 2016 should be greater than the demand for funds.

Take the stock market as an example, next year there will be more than 2 billion yuan financing, but the supply of funds to the stock market is far beyond this figure.

The net increase in funds in 2016 was about 3 trillion and 300 billion yuan.

So next year, in the supply of funds, it does not constitute a negative impact on the stock market, nor does it constitute a negative impact on the entire capital market.

The biggest challenge to the registration system will be how to release the pricing issue.

At present, the guidance price is no more than 24 times the price earnings ratio, but the median market price earnings ratio (after deducting recurrent gains and losses) is 135 times.

This can explain that most of the current IPO premiums are between 3-5 times.

By contrast, the price earnings ratio of mature markets such as the United States is only about 17-20 times that of the bull market.

Under such a high valuation, the Chinese market is expected to take a cushion in order to avoid too much impact. The first step is to put the registration system on the stock exchange.