The Textile And Garment Industry Ushered In The Second Round Of "Cold Winter" After The Financial Crisis.

Since the beginning of this year, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased, employment risks have increased, and some industries have been closed down, strikes, layoffs, wage cuts and so on.

Some people on the Internet have been cutting down on the current employment situation and exaggerating individual phenomena as "the most tragic collapse of strikes in the history of wages".

Is it so tragic?

Take the textile and garment industry as an example, in 2012, China's textile and garment industry ushered in the second round of "cold winter" after the financial crisis, which has not been thawed for several years.

The phenomenon of some enterprises failing to pay wages this year is the "headline party", which has attracted the attention of the "170 million Party of the working population, the collapse of the textile and garment industry, and tens of millions of people will go home early for the new year".

However, the author has long been concerned about the textile and garment industry in China for a long time, and thinks that the problem of bankruptcy and unemployment in the industry is just "looking miserable". Actually, it is not so miserable, and the reason for the problem is not very simple.

Therefore, the author discovered the truth hidden behind the "tragic" appearance by investigating the competent authorities, trade associations and related enterprises. It was considered that the data of the 170 million textile and garment industry of the working population are now closed down, and millions of people will come home early for the new year.

The government should take active measures to help enterprises tide over difficulties, but they should not be responsible for and pay for business failures.

First, the investment of 4 trillion yuan in 2009 did not flow to the general processing industry. Orders for textile and garment industry began to increase significantly in the second half of 2009, not because of 4 trillion yuan investment.

The two is the large number of private enterprises in the textile and garment industry. Whether enlarging the scale is the decision of the enterprise itself, and how the market situation should be judged by the enterprise itself.

The government's commitment to credit funds is not in place. It is only an external reason. It is only a direct cause for banks to extract loans and pressure loans to exacerbate capital chain breakage. The failure of corporate decisions and poor financial management are internal reasons.

All costs, including labor costs, raw material costs, equipment acquisition and operating costs, are, of course, the cause of serious losses in some enterprises.

However, the prosperity of industrial enterprises can not be maintained at low cost, because low cost is bound to be short-lived, and price war is doomed to be unsustainable.

First, the environmental pollution of textile and clothing production is heavy. Young people generally do not want to enter. Labor costs rise from several hundred yuan to three thousand or four thousand yuan, and there is rigidity. Therefore, enterprises will face "recruitment difficulties" and "recruitment expensive" problems for a long time.

Two, in a free competitive market, under the pressure of cost increase, enterprises are either upgrading or being eliminated.

Only in the way of scraping and healing, can the industry structure be optimized and industry concentration increased.

After the level, China's textile and garment industry can be reborn, creating China's "Chanel" and "Louis Vuitton" to overcome foreign products.

First of all, 170 million overestimates the actual employment of the textile and garment industry.

This figure is not practical at first.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, only 20 million of China's textile and garment industry is employed.

Secondly, it is logically unworkable.

The work of textile and garment industry practitioners includes garment manufacturing, wholesale and retail sectors.

The employment rate of manufacturing, wholesale and retail businesses in China is only 196 million 770 thousand, of which 61 million 488 thousand of those employed in urban units are 135 million 282 thousand of those employed by private enterprises and self-employed ones.

In this paper, the statistical caliber of the employment population of textile and garment industry can not reach 170 million even if all the upstream and downstream industries are included.

Because 170 million accounts for 86% of the total number of manufacturing, wholesale and retail employment, which means that the majority of China's manufacturing, wholesale and retail industries are textile and garment industries, which is clearly impossible.

Actually,

There are a large number of voluntary unemployment and structural unemployment.

From the point of departure, many people actually voluntarily lose their jobs and turn to other industries.

There are quite a few from employment.

In particular, workers under the age of 40 are unwilling to engage in the textile and garment industry. Many textile and garment enterprises are also faced with the problem of "recruitment difficulty".

With the collapse of the textile and garment industry of 170 million of the working population, tens of millions of people will come home early to celebrate the new year. The article argues that China's textile and garment industry has long been "defeated". The author finds that after China's textile and garment industry has gone through a long period of low trough, the signs of thaw and warming are gradually appearing this year.

Take the Shanghai and Shenzhen two textile and garment industry listed companies as an example, more and more listed companies began to turn losses into profits and gradually achieve different amplitude of performance growth.

As of October 7th, 48 listed companies in the textile and garment industry released three quarterly earnings forecasts in 2015, of which 60% over the first three quarters of the year are expected to rise, and 9 companies' net profit growth is expected to exceed 100% (100%) over the same period.

After more than three years of adjustment, the domestic clothing market has gradually recovered, and the textile and garment industry has gradually recovered and the upward trend has been established.

Looking at employment again, as many mainland enterprises are going to set up factories in Xinjiang to save cotton pportation costs, it is expected that 67 thousand new jobs will be created in Xinjiang's textile and garment industry this year.

From the above analysis, it can be seen that judging from the news of the collapse of individual large enterprises and some small and medium-sized enterprises, it is wrong to judge the collapse and unemployment of our textile and garment industry.