PTA: Short Term Weakness Is Difficult To Improve.

Since December, PTA has seen a fall in the market. The main 1605 contract fell below the pre operational interval last week, setting a new low of 4276 yuan / ton.

On the whole, although the main contract price of PTA is still around 4300 yuan / ton, the price of PTA will continue to bear pressure under the influence of partial factors. The short term weak pattern is difficult to improve.

Oil prices continue to fall, the cost side is limited.

At the beginning of December, the OPEC conference, which had attracted much attention from the market, failed to produce good news, and its decision to abandon the crude oil production cap was a heavy blow to the international crude oil market.

Subsequently, EIA announced

It shows that although the US crude oil inventories have declined after 10 consecutive weeks of growth, the stock of refined oil products has increased significantly, and the stock of distillate stocks has seen the largest increase since January.

As a result, the international crude oil price has dropped for 6 days. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below 40 US dollars / barrel, and the WTI crude oil price is approaching 35 US dollars / barrel.

At the same time, the PX contract negotiations failed in December, and the market price difference between the offer price and the delivery price was obvious. Moreover, there was no speculation in the raw material PX market, which basically followed the trend of crude oil price.

Last Wednesday, an accident occurred in the Ningbo CICC petrochemical plant. Its PX device temporarily stopped and the PX spot price rose slightly.

However, the performance of the upstream and downstream markets is relatively weak, and the supply of PX spot market is relatively stable, so it is difficult to effectively boost the PTA cost price.

Construction load rises, supply pressure alleviates

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Since the second half of this year, the price of PTA has been lower than the overall performance of other petrochemical products. The main reason is that domestic PTA factories set off intensive maintenance overhaul, which led to tight supply in the spot market and low inventory.

Affected by this, the market supply is tight, suppliers have strong price intention, PTA spot price performance is stronger, PTA futures contract discount rate has exceeded 200 yuan / ton in recent months.

What's more, the profitability of PTA factory is generally improved, and the willingness to stop inspection is weakened.

At present, most of the PTA repair devices have resumed normal operation, and the comprehensive PTA load has increased to 67%, which is relatively high in the near future.

In view of this, the supply of PTA market has changed from the previous tense pattern, and the possibility of centralized maintenance of PTA devices is not very high in the near future. It is estimated that the PTA price will continue to weaken.

Facing the off-season inflection point, the downstream production and marketing dilemma

The overall performance of the downstream industry is not prosperous this year. After the "golden nine silver ten", the terminal weaving industry's performance of orders is insufficient, and the load of the industry has declined significantly.

It is understood that from 8 to 19 December, most of Jiaxing and Shaoxing regions

Being confined to production and shutting down makes the originally weak.

One disaster after another.

On the one hand, starting from late November, the comprehensive operation load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped from 72% to 65% at present, which is obviously lower than that in the same period in 2013 and 2014. On the other hand, the polyester industry is also not optimistic, and the start-up load has dropped to 76%, which is also a little different from that in the previous two years.

In addition, affected by the sluggish terminal demand, although the factory's willingness to ship goods is strong, the price of the main polyester products is at a historic low level, but the production and marketing performance is still poor.

In short, the market's overall bias, the possibility of stock market appear weaker.

On the whole, despite the initial inventory, PTA market supply pressure is not great, but the cost side of crude oil prices are down, and near the end of the downstream demand has accelerated signs of decline. It is expected that PTA futures will continue to bear pressure, short-term or maintain a weak pattern.