Where Did The Real Estate Cotton Go In 2015?

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the whole country in 2015

The total output was 5 million 605 thousand tons, a decrease of 574 thousand tons compared with 2014, a decrease of 9.3%.

The output is 3 million 503 thousand tons, and the total output of the mainland cotton area is 2 million 102 thousand tons, accounting for 37.5% of the total in the country. Shandong, Hebei and Hubei rank the top three, producing 537 thousand tons, 373 thousand tons and 298 thousand tons respectively.

The high output of cotton production in the mainland has surprised many institutions and cotton companies.

On the one hand, as of December 22nd, the number of cotton tested in the cotton fields in the mainland was only 171 thousand and 400 tons, accounting for only 5.31% of the total cotton inspection in the mainland, accounting for 8.15% of the total cotton output in the mainland of China. At present, the purchase and processing of seed cotton in the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin has entered the middle and late stages. For example, the ginning plants in Hebei and Shandong have been stopped at the present stage; on the other hand, except for the relatively good lint length and horse value in the cotton area of Hubei, there are generally many problems in the other cotton regions of the mainland, such as short fiber length, large horse value and insufficient fracture strength.

It is understood that some of the 400 cotton ginning plants in the mainland have only a very small number of acquisitions and processing.

So where did the real estate cotton go in 2015? I think maybe the answer can be found from the following aspects.

1. Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Henan and other places 200 type small cotton ginning factory "resurgence", small package of cotton in the lead, resulting in

The volume of public inspection has plummeted.

Since the acquisition and processing cost of the 200 type plant is much lower than that of the 400 type plant, 2.90-3.10 yuan / Jin has been purchased as usual (small factories are mostly bought in the fields, farmers' homes, and seed cotton purchasing prices are lower), while the 400 type plants have been upside down and cost down with the selling price. They can only receive less or stop the collection. The small cotton mills with the main products of C32S and below are more inclined to purchase small packages of cotton, do not need to enter the Treasury for public inspection, move down, pport conveniently and save money, and have a high turnover rate.

Two, because of the low yield of cotton planting, the farmers' sales period has been greatly extended, and the phenomenon of cotton storage is widespread.

In 2015, the overall weather disaster in the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River valley cotton area was not large. The yield per unit area of cotton did not decline slightly but increased slightly in 2014 than that in the Yangtze River Basin. However, the cotton quality was not ideal due to the cotton varieties and the low temperature. Moreover, the price of the bulk agricultural products dropped to a low level since 1999, and the prices of cotton, rice, wheat, corn and other crops all dropped sharply. In addition, the target price of cotton in Xinjiang dropped from 19800 yuan / ton to 19100 yuan / ton, and the lint percentage of 38% cotton seed price dropped to 3 yuan / kg.

The three and 400 type ginning factories are more likely to participate in the public inspection and prefer factory inspection certificates to the sale of lint.

Considering that the lint length is shorter in 2015 (27mm and below accounted for the obvious growth in the past years), the ratio of micron value C2 is high and the strength is strong, the enthusiasm of the 400 type ginning plants in the mainland is not very high. Compared with the 3127 and 3128 grades, the ginning plants prefer the factory inspection to 2128 and 2129 levels. As the cotton mills are all looking at big orders, and this year, the 400 type ginning plants are basically maintaining production. At least one ton of the warehousing inspection is at least 150-200 yuan (including two short lead and warehousing, dumping, storage, insurance and so on).