China'S Economy Or Usher In "U" Rebound

At the beginning of the new year, the fall of the RMB against the US dollar and the sharp fluctuation of the A share market once again attracted the attention of the whole world.

This makes some scholars who "empty China" seem to have found "evidence".

Those who hold a "hard landing" view argue that China's economic growth is far worse than expected, and that it "prefers to be overly vigilant against China, and it will not be overly optimistic."

However, most scholars at home and abroad pointed out that China's economy is in the adjustment period of the new and old power pformation, and is suffering from the global economic weakness.

At present, there are many factors that affect short-term fluctuations in financial markets. Judging from short-term fluctuations and difficulties, it is undoubtedly arbitrary to judge that China's economy will "hard landing".

The reasons for financial fluctuations are complex.

Although China's economy is facing a series of "pformation worries", the five substantive prescriptions of "capacity, inventory, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation" can not be ignored.

"There are many factors that affect the stock market and foreign exchange market, and the requirements for regulation and management skills are very high.

The regulatory means of developed countries such as the United States have been accumulated through numerous complicated cases.

In contrast, China's regulation is still in the stage of embracing the market and exploring experience. Therefore, on the one hand, the policy itself should not be haste. On the other hand, we should not be too hasty in looking at policies. "

Zhang Tiegang, a professor of economics at Central University of Finance and Economics, told our reporter about the recent financial market fluctuations.

So, does financial volatility indicate a "hard landing" of China's economy? Historically, the huge fluctuation of China's stock market can not really reflect the current situation and future of China's economy.

It may reflect more about the mood and worries of Chinese investors who are mainly retail investors, including the unease of the US interest rate increase and the regional situation.

The report said that since the financial crisis, China is the only big country that really implements economic reform.

Experts point out that

Consistent with excessive inventory, high debt ratio will bring potential risks.

In carrying out the recent economic tasks, China will not only take into account the short-term impact of stock taking, but also focus on creating new supply and demand, and developing new economic growth points, so as to fill short boards and provide more employment and development opportunities.

Transformation is not a day's work.

Toughness, potential, policy and room for maneuver.

For China's economy, there are more ways than difficulties.

However, just as we learn to walk before we can run, the problems accumulated in the "old normal" of Chinese economy can not be solved overnight.

"Many economic crises are psychological panic in essence.

Therefore, from our own point of view, we should care for the market and nurture new impetus. For overseas observers, we need to be patient with China's economy. We should not rush to the conclusion of the Chinese economy in a short and partial way.

Zhang Tiegang emphasized.

At the same time, the external economic situation will also profoundly affect China.

The world of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences recently released the 2016 world.

The analysis report pointed out that at present, the global economic recovery is difficult and the polarization has intensified. It has said goodbye to the previous growth cycle. It is impossible to achieve the global economic rebalancing under the old framework, which will undoubtedly cause the external demand of China's economy to be weak.

According to the report, China's structural reform of supply side is neither simply copying the "Reagan economics" of the United States, nor completely abandoning "Keynes economics". It is a distinctive Chinese practice, that is, by changing the efficiency of resource allocation and the total factor productivity to change the mismatch between the internal supply and demand structure.

In the process, despite the pain of "closing down" in the short term, the positive factors of China's economy will increase in the long run.

Long term good trend remains unchanged.

The pformation pains are not enough to fear, the new power is emerging.

Taking the IT industry as an example, the added value of electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 10.8% from 1 to November in 2015, which was 4.7 percentage points higher than the industrial average level.

In the same period, China's software and information technology service industry completed 38217 billion yuan in software business, up 16.2% compared to the same period last year.

Beyond hard landing, more scholars at home and abroad are still right.

The future is optimistic.

Stephen Hroch, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes that the volatility of the RMB exchange rate and the stock market has made the market suspicious of China. The strong employment figures are drawing a more positive picture.

Fu Limen, Professor of the central European Research Institute of VUB-Vrije Universiteit Brussel, said that China's economic structural adjustment has made great progress in recent years. The bright spot of the supply side reform in the future is that it will make resources flow to industries with more potential for development. Therefore, although the growth of traditional industries will weaken in the short term, the efficiency of China's economy will increase in the long run.

Li Daokui, director of the China and world economic research center of Tsinghua University, predicts that in the second half of 2016, China's economy will usher in a "U" rebound in the second half of the year, with the role of the "two child" policy in stimulating consumption, the rebound in real estate investment and development and the gradual implementation of fixed asset basic investment projects.

"As long as China persists in opening to the outside world, letting all outstanding achievements of civilization in the world be used for us, and through continuous deepening reform and practicing hard work and making our market economy more mature, China's economy will still have considerable competitiveness and imagination in the medium to long term."

Zhang Tiegang said.