The Fed Is On The Edge Of Changing The Outlook.

At the beginning of the new year 2016, the market greeted investors with risk aversion, and the factors leading to the reversal of risk sentiment remained China's worries and geopolitical risks, which dragged down the performance of risk related and commodity currencies in G10.

French agricultural loan on Friday (January 8th) pointed out that, taking into account the Fed's further tightening of monetary policy in the context of the global economic slowdown, the market fear will increase.

Be cautious.

The decline in sovereign foreign exchange reserves will further weaken the demand for global stocks and bonds and intensify the global financial tightening.

Regarding the trend of major currencies, the following is a brief analysis:

US dollar: risk aversion will still challenge the Fed's prospect of raising interest rates.

The risk of disgust will be suppressed if American retail sales are strong in the following week.

The euro and the Swiss Franc will not be under pressure.

Norway kroner and SEK: facing low oil prices and Sweden

The CPI data in Sweden and Norway do not seem so important to intervene in the threat of foreign exchange.

Gold: gold was the best in early 2016, and in the risk aversion environment, gold hedging charm.

Pound: UK data continues to improve and the outlook for the Bank of England remains basically unchanged, which will offset Britain's concerns about Euro withdrawal to a certain extent, thereby supporting the pound.

Australian Dollar: be cautious.

In view of the Australian and Chinese data releases, Australia's recent poor performance is likely to continue next week.

Further easing measures by the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of China and the Bank of Japan, as well as more official policies to help restore market confidence, should help ease investor concerns.

If the central bank does not introduce these measures, the key risk is that the risk aversion will continue to make the Fed more cautious.

However, as of now, there are few signs that the Fed is on the verge of changing the outlook.

In September, the Fed's cautious attitude once aroused investor concern. The French Federal Reserve will continue to express confidence in the recovery of the US economy, which will be regarded as a relative hawk, which will support the demand for us dollar differences.

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Strong employment growth in the last three months of 2015 should allow the fed to feel reassured by further interest rates this year and perhaps raise interest rates as early as March this year.

The labor department said the number of non farm workers increased by 292 thousand in December last year and increased by an average of 284 thousand people in the last three months.

This data is higher than the average growth rate of 260 thousand people in 2014.

The unemployment rate was flat at 5% last December.

Salary growth is relatively moderate, but shows signs of a slight increase.

The average hourly wage increase in December last year increased by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, while the increase was almost 2% over most of the period of economic expansion.

Employment growth shows that the US economy not only resists the adverse effects of slowing growth abroad, but also gets rid of the strong negative impact of the US dollar on manufacturing and exports.

Federal Reserve officials may not overreact to the latest employment figures, as the monthly employment growth figures have changed considerably and frequent seasonal anomalies have occurred in recent years.

In November 2014 and December, the number of employment increased by 423 thousand and 329 thousand respectively, but in early 2015, the growth rate dropped sharply.

Federal Reserve officials will hold interest rate meetings on 26-27 January.

Futures markets believe that the Federal Reserve has a lower probability of raising interest rates again at this meeting.

Although the job market has continued to grow, inflation has been lower than the 2% target set by the fed in the past three and a half years. Some officials want to see clear signs of inflation before further raising interest rates.

The turmoil in overseas markets and stock markets in January may leave Fed officials reluctant to raise interest rates at the next meeting.

But they are still expected to raise interest rates at the March meeting.

This will enable the fed to raise interest rates four times this year, which was also written by officials in this year's official interest rate outlook.

However, the futures market still believes that interest rates will only rise two times this year.

The US labor market ended in 2015 with impressive employment growth last December. This is the latest sign that the US economy remains stable under adverse international circumstances.

The Labor Department announced on Friday that the number of non farm payrolls increased by 292 thousand in December after seasonally adjusted factors.

Another report shows that the unemployment rate in December was stable at 5%.

The unemployment rate has not been below 5% since 2007.

Economists had predicted that the number of non farm payrolls increased by 210 thousand in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%.