Risk And Opportunity Coexist In 2016

The market performance for the first trading week in 2016.

Wang Huan believes that the market crash is not caused unilaterally by the fusing mechanism, which will only increase the volatility of the market, but not the main reason.

The fundamental risk points of market fluctuation include three points: the expiration of major shareholder's holdings, the expectation of RMB depreciation, and the downside risks of economic fundamentals.

Before the new year's day, the market began to worry that lifting the ban on large shareholders would put pressure on the market.

After the two blow up, on Thursday, the SFC issued an emergency policy to improve the relevant provisions of the reduction of major shareholders. Although the policy is far behind the market expectations, it will also play a positive role in stabilizing the stock market.

Secondly, after the 8 / 11 exchange rate reform, the RMB depreciated. In the year 2016, the depreciation rate of RMB was relatively fast.

From the international experience, devaluation will lead to interest rate rise and foreign exchange outflow, which will impact asset prices.

In addition, China is facing economic pformation and upgrading, and there are too many uncertainties.

Wang Huan believes that the biggest uncertainty in economic pformation is the risk of economic fundamentals. "Fundamentals will affect the stability of the financial system. If the real economy behaves badly, it will have a systemic impact in some industries".

Although the stock market risk is quite large in 2016, rosefinch investment is optimistic about the 2016 market.

Wang Huan said that this year there will be more exponential shocks or split stocks, so the key to investors' return is stock selection.

In addition, although everyone is criticizing the fusing mechanism, the stock price caused by the two fuses has dropped sharply, and the current A shares may exist in 2016, one of the most absolute opportunities for absolute return.

Why is there absolute opportunity to gain?

Wang Huan thought, first of all

Although the basic level is not good, but now it does not seem to be too pessimistic, the economic probability in 2016 is at the bottom of the bottom or the bottom of the process, turning to the state of L shape.

PMI rebounded in December 2015, indicating that all measures for steady growth have played a role, which can be seen as a sign that the economy has bottomed out.

Based on the trend of economic structural improvement and the forecast of real estate investment growth in 2016, taking into account the policy's counter cyclical regulation and reform measures and reform measures, rosefinch investment is relatively optimistic about the growth of GDP this year.

Secondly, from

In the future, China's future

Or the downward trend of the trend, the fixed income asset allocation attractiveness is also declining.

In this case, it is a general trend to increase the rights and interests allocation, and equity assets are the most benefited from reform and pformation.

In addition, the performance of the stock market is improving.

We can see that the funds are more likely to underestimate the investment targets of blue chips and traditional industries through the frequent listing of insurance funds in the preceding section.

Some traditional industries are relatively mature and valuations are not expensive.

The leading companies in these industries have also been actively making adjustments in the past two or three years. For example, department stores are heavily affected by online e-commerce, and some companies are actively pforming to e-commerce. These have certain investment opportunities.

In addition, the entire market has been on the 3000 point, compared with last year's 5000 points, the investment cost performance has increased a lot.

Fusing is not the only cause of a slump. Major shareholder's reduction in the lifting of the ban, devaluation of the renminbi and uncertainty in the pformation and upgrading of the economy are all the reasons for the decline in the A share market. In this case, although the 3000 point can not be determined whether it is the lowest point, it can be considered that the valuation has been relatively cheap. A shares may face one of the most determinate absolute return opportunities in 2016.