The Real Demand For Financing Is Much Larger Than The Supply Of Funds.

Our market likes to look for scapegoats. It is like the two crash of July 2015 and August, which is blamed on stock index futures. This time, there is no stock index futures to suppress, and the market is still plummeting.

It can be seen that the system is not the main cause of the collapse, nor is it the main reason for the collapse of the market as a trading mechanism. However, the system really played a role in boosting the market.

The idea of blaming the collapse is a universality of the market.

Is the fuse system really the main driver of the collapse? I think not.

Our market likes to look for scapegoats. It is like the two crash of July 2015 and August, which is blamed on stock index futures. This time, there is no stock index futures to suppress, and the market is still plummeting.

It can be seen that the system is not the main cause of the collapse, nor is it the main reason for the collapse of the market as a trading mechanism. However, the system really played a role in boosting the market.

What is the reason for the market slump and when can it be bottomed out? That is why investors should calm down and think seriously.

The huge demand for financing is

Main reason for stock market crash

By the end of November 2015, the total share of equities and mixed funds was 23819 billion yuan, and the share of private equity is currently about 25000 billion yuan (estimated). At the end of November.2015, the total amount of insurance funds invested in equities and securities funds amounted to 15271 billion yuan, and in 2015 investors were pferred to 32752 billion yuan.

How to calculate the actual market capital is less than one hundred thousand billion, which is far more than 1 million billions of funds per year, and the market is hard to bear.

On the morning of January 6th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a number of provisions on the holding of shares of major shareholders and directors of listed companies, which stipulates that the total number of shares reduced by major shareholders through centralized trading in stock exchanges within three months shall not exceed one percent of the total shares of the company. It is necessary to disclose the first 15 trading days.

。

Judging from the actual situation in recent years, the reduction of 60% of major shareholders is carried out through block trading and agreement pfer. The proportion of large shareholders' reduction in the total market value through centralized bidding is only about 0.7%.

Control of large shareholders and directors' supervision system is very small. It can not limit the market's thirst for capital, and it has little effect.

From the registration system, the emerging strategic board of Shanghai, the permitted issuance of new shares on the Shenzhen main board, and the new three boards and other aspects of the policy, the number of new listings in the market will be very large after 2016, plus

Such factors as reduction and refinancing can not bear the market liquidity. With this expectation, the market slump occurred.

Data show that: in 2015, the issuance, reduction and issuance of new shares accumulated a total of 1.33 trillion from the market. It is estimated that the total amount of A shares will be far more than 1 trillion of the three new share issuance, reduction and issuance in 2016.

This includes the issuance of new shares, the issuance of additional funds and the reduction of market capitalization will reach 200 billion, 500 billion and 400 billion yuan respectively (according to the reduction in 2015, the largest shareholder repurchases 200 billion during the stock market crash). If administrative regulation is not made, the three parties will extract funds from the A share market far more than 1 trillion yuan.

Or "lose the car to protect the commander".

As we all know, the recent devaluation of the renminbi has been one of the reasons why domestic real estate investment has pushed the economy to an end. The real estate industry has become a major drag on economic development from the locomotive of economic development.

To prevent the economic downturn, we must find a pillar industry to replace the role of real estate in the economy.

It is defined as the function of replacing real estate in the economy by investing capital in the real economy through the listing and financing of enterprises.

Therefore, registration system, emerging strategy board, Shenzhen main board issuing new shares, new three board pfer board and so on, as long as it is able to raise direct financing measures, in a very short period of time have been promulgated.

The depreciation of the RMB - the downlink of the real estate market - the huge financing of the stock market is a chain problem. The large-scale financing of the stock market is actually a trade-off between saving the economy or stabilizing the stock market.

In order to save the stock market from rising and falling, there will be a large-scale financing policy.

From all aspects of the policy has been promulgated, abandoning the expectations of the stock market rise and fall, through the financing of a large number of funds into the real economy become the keynote.

This kind of "lost car security" brings the way of financing from last year to come out in a short time. The demand for financing is far greater than the market affordability. We can guess that the huge fluctuation of stock market will happen.

If we understand the necessity of issuing a large number of new shares, and the importance of direct financing to the economy, we will know the trend of the market ahead of time. We anticipate that 2016 will be a big bear market. Look at the 60~100 times price earnings ratio of small cap stocks. On the face of it, 20 times the issue of new shares, the price earnings ratio is not large. In fact, the opening up limit is 60~100 times earnings ratio. The market acceptance fund is 3~5 times the amount of financing, and liquidity will be exhausted very quickly.

Either the old stock price earnings ratio has dropped sharply, or the market can not make big investments. The two way is to choose one.

At this stage, the price earnings ratio of the old stock market is going down in a large scale. In the next few years, the valuation of the new stock market has dropped sharply, and the amount of financing for the IPO has been greatly reduced. In order to find a new balance between capital and supply, the downtrend is inevitable.

The three signal appears.

Can enter the field to do more.

Through the above analysis, it is known that the suspension of the fusing system and the prohibit of stock index futures account opening are playing a role in the surface and short-term fluctuations of the stock market, and in the long run, they have little effect.

When can I enter the field? I think there are several signals to enter the field:

1, there are genuine gold and silver rescue funds to undertake the collapse of the process of closing positions.

Under the background of systemic risk, many private and public funds have to deal with large-scale redemption and forced to liquidate. The snowball will become bigger and bigger, and the collapse effect of Domino has already formed.

In this case, if the market is to stop, there must be funds to stop the snowball rolling from the market. As in July 2015 and August, the need to enter a large capital market and stop the collapse of the market is needed.

It is not credible to have no drop.

Even if it stabilizes or stops, the market is likely to continue to fall sharply at any time.

Because the nature of financing demand has not changed, this decline will continue to return to the 40 fold earnings ratio of small cap stocks.

2, the market needs to start the hot spots in turn.

For example, in August 27, 2015, the rebound in the first half of the stock market continued to rise, followed by Disney, electric vehicle lithium phosphate, brokerage and other hot plate rotation.

The hot turns show that all the funds in the market are willing to make the market, and the popularity of the market is recovering.

A market without hot spots is not worth trading, and its value is very low.

3, the IPO system should be implemented concretely.

How many new shares will be issued every month before the registration system is implemented, and how many new shares will be issued every month after the registration system is implemented? The regulators should give investors a clear figure.

It is only clear that speculators can clearly calculate the extent and extent of market decline, otherwise they will not dare to enter any time.

The above three points have not occurred before, the market is still likely to be a big drop or a small pattern, the downward trend has been formed, and it is difficult to change in the short term.

Because no one knows when the market will bottom.

Either the bottom of the disk is reduced, or a huge line will appear after a continuous collapse. Otherwise, any decline in this time will likely continue to fall.