Analysis Of Domestic Cotton Turnover Inventory Changes

In November, the new cotton market entered the peak, but the textile market continued to be in a downturn. Pure cotton yarn prices continue to go down, with cotton enterprises to purchase raw materials to be cautious. The overall supply of market resources is in excess of demand, and cotton business inventories have increased significantly. Xinjiang cotton enterprises are stepping up sales efforts, and the external spanport volume of Xinjiang cotton has risen sharply. According to the Logistics Association of China Cotton Association, there are 190 cotton delivery and supervision warehouses, social warehouses, bonded areas inventory and processing enterprises in 18 provinces and cities nationwide. Stock The total inventory of cotton business in China is 2 million 550 thousand tons (including Xin cotton and Chen Mian), an increase of 960 thousand tons from last month, an increase of 60%.

Among them, as of the end of November, in Xinjiang Xinjiang cotton 2 million 58 thousand tons, an increase of 812 thousand tons. Among them, 39 warehouses in Xinjiang area have 1 million 894 thousand tons of commodity cotton (1 million 834 thousand tons of new cotton, 60 thousand tons of cotton), and 101 thousand tons of spanportation on the way, 50 thousand tons of highways and 51 thousand tons of railways. The warehouse business in the mainland has a stock of 360 thousand tons, an increase of 140 thousand tons, an increase of 64%. Among them, China Cotton Association cotton logistics branch monitored 178 thousand and 300 cotton warehouse stocks in the 151 cotton warehouses in the mainland, an increase of 41 thousand tons, including 157 thousand and 500 tons of Xinjiang cotton, and 20 thousand tons of imported cotton and 800 tons of real estate cotton. The inventory of processing plants and social warehouses was 181 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 98 thousand and 700 tons. According to Qingdao, Zhangjiagang In Shanghai and other bonded areas, the import of cotton in the bonded area totaled 132 thousand tons, an increase of 8 thousand tons, an increase of 7%.

From the Zhengzhou cotton index weekly K line trend chart, the price is located below the downward trend line and the moving average, and the EMA is arranged in a short order, and the downward trend continues; the short-term MACD index is at the bottom, and there is a demand for a rebound. But in terms of volume and position, there is no sign of warming up, so there is a weak rebound and the rate will not be too great. In 2016, cotton prices will continue to be bottomed out.

Domestically, although the domestic cotton output and import volume both showed a marked decline in 2015, there was a certain support for cotton prices. However, the demand for cotton in the lower reaches also declined, and the domestic cotton formed a "tight balance" situation. However, the huge inventory of China will be a long-term process and thus suppress the formation of domestic cotton prices. How to stock up in the future will become an important factor affecting the fluctuation of Zheng cotton futures price. In the current state of high inventory and bottom demand, it is difficult for cotton prices to rise substantially. It is estimated that the cotton price will continue to weaken in 2016, and the price range of Zheng cotton index will be estimated at 10500-13500 yuan / ton.

To sum up, the international outlook for cotton fundamentals is expected to improve, supply is expected to decline, consumption is expected to increase slightly, cotton futures are expected to decline, but the supply and demand turn to a good margin is limited, and global cotton stocks are high, especially in China's inventory, and the decline in China's imports also to suppress international cotton prices. Therefore, in 2016, the international cotton price will probably run weak oscillating, with an estimated operating interval of 50-70 cents per pound.