China'S Stock Market Has Been In A Long Row For A Long Time.

Is it a slow cow? Actually, it is a hard nut to crack. In fact, it is a difficult concept to identify, and if the market is to reach a consensus, the early entry of the market will mean that you have lower share holding costs, which means that you will gain more profits, and that means you will gain more profits, so that you will be rushing to enter the market and buy stocks ahead of time. Besides, China's institutions have been scattered and retail has been flocking. What you are doing is the trend market, which will appear in a short period of time. It is very optimistic that it will become a mad cow. In the first half of 15 years, the trend is so. Who is the slow cow? Who can tell me clearly how the stock market works?

In the hope of gaining more profits, the result is obvious to all. The reform of cattle and cattle has become a leveraged cow mad cow, thus turning into a stock market crash at the end of June.

So this is something that is not easy to achieve.

Experts always say that the market has its own operation rules. So, is the market running fast and slow? Is the market running rhythm controlled by several experts? It's a bit unthinkable!

At the beginning of the new year, although the mainstream market is optimistic about the stock market, it is believed that the reform of cattle is the main theme. However, investors believe that China's stock market is facing many uncertain factors. They have sold their holdings, and on the first day of the new year, they hit the fusing mechanism twice and suspended trading. After that, they still slumped and then plunged. Some stocks fell more than 40%, and fell more than 30%.

On the theory of being a real flicker!

I don't know if there is any guilt in singing the ox and the cow. Do you feel sorry for tens of thousands of investors? Do the people who sing the stock market boom feel that they have fooled thousands of ordinary people?

　　15年上證綜指收?qǐng)?bào) 3539.18點(diǎn)，深圳成指收?qǐng)?bào)12664.89點(diǎn)，中小板收?qǐng)?bào)8393.83點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)業(yè)板收?qǐng)?bào)2714.05點(diǎn)，筆者不知道慢牛論者是指股市全年所有交易日維持一種慢漲慢跌走勢(shì)，到年底股指小幅上漲，就像美國(guó)三大股指一樣，很少有超過(guò)1%的漲跌幅，但全年三大股指上漲20%上下，那么中國(guó)股市開(kāi)年暴跌，慢牛論已經(jīng)全部失去存在基礎(chǔ)，慢牛論已經(jīng)不攻自破;還是不管過(guò)程如何激烈，暴漲暴跌不斷上演，讓投資者無(wú)所適從，嚇破肝膽都沒(méi)關(guān)系，全年維持一種小幅上漲就是慢牛，也就是只看結(jié)果不看過(guò)程，這有待觀察;最后一個(gè)問(wèn)題就是上漲多少算慢牛，是指單純以上證綜指而論，還是指全部指數(shù)都要小幅上揚(yáng)，上揚(yáng)幅度算多少才算慢牛，這都沒(méi)有說(shuō)清楚，只是一句含混不清的慢牛，讓人覺(jué)得難以理解難以把握，到時(shí)候也難以評(píng)判，專(zhuān)家們預(yù)言是不是正確。

At present, the yield of financial products is about 5%, the yield of ten year bonds is about 3%, and the actual value is less than 3%, just for the sake of calculation convenience. If we consider that the stock market is a risky asset, there should be a risk premium, so all the index increase of LF should be above 10% or less than 20%, because the higher than 20% increase is the intermediate level or above rebound.

When we do not consider the increase of performance, what is the corresponding price earnings ratio? Today, the Shanghai composite index is 13.14 times the price earnings ratio, the Shenzhen index is 42.27 times, the medium and small board is 53.06 times, the growth enterprise market is 75.65 times, and the corresponding growth rate will be more than 18.13, the Shenzhen composite index is 61.71 times, the medium and small board is 77.57 times, the gem is 114.61 times, the price earnings ratio is obviously higher, which is several times higher than the US price earnings ratio, and the Shanghai composite index is lower than the US Dow price earnings ratio.

Very few reasons) although some people think that we should not take the price earnings ratio of the US stock market as a matter of fact, but the author thinks that only by comparison can we see whether the Chinese stock market is overestimating whether there is a bubble or not. Besides, those people are always keen on the US registration system, and are keen on the uncontrolled new shares in the US. Can we only compare the US price earnings ratio with the introduction of the US registration system and see if there is any bubble in our stock market?

According to the rise of 15%, by the end of 16, the Shanghai composite index should be 4070.01 points, the Shenzhen index 14564.62 points, the small and medium board 9652.90 points, the gem 3121.16 points.

I think this point is still a little high, mainly gem is higher, today's Shanghai Composite Index 2949.6 points, Shenzhen index 9978.82 points, the gem index points to 2059.78 points, small and medium-sized board 6602.31 points, from today's corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index to rise 1120.41 points or 37.99%, Shenzhen index rose 4585.8 points or 45.95%, the gem rose 1061.38 or 51.53%, small plates 3050.59 points or 3050.59, this increase is a big bull market, far beyond the intermediate rebound, can such a strong rebound be achieved?