A Shares Need Catalyst For Spring Rebound

Since the beginning of the new year, we have been emphasizing that the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the combination of the domestic liquidity policy are the important catalysts for the first quarter of the year.

The next 1-2 weeks will be the window period for the domestic liquidity policy combination, and will also be the time window for the spring rebound.

First, the increase in cash paction demand caused by the Spring Festival factor; the central bank usually releases the seasonal fluctuation of liquidity in the first two weeks of the Spring Festival; two, in December, the foreign exchange occupation decreased by 708 billion 200 million yuan, the largest decline in history, and the necessity of hedging. Three, it was announced in January 19th that the macroeconomic data in the four quarter of 2015 continued to be weak, and credit expansion was weak.

The short-term RMB exchange rate volatility is expected to converge.

First, there are obvious signs of market intervention near the spot exchange rate of 6.6 against the US dollar, with a relatively low probability of breaking down in the short term. Two, the offshore and onshore spreads are much more convergent than before. Three, the central bank intends to collect reserve requirements for foreign interbank deposits and reduce the supply of overseas renminbi, thereby inhibiting the ability of overseas shorting the renminbi.

After the first wave of the warehouse, institutional investors will enter an observation period.

Experienced a sharp fall in the first half of January, institutional investors generally reduced their positions, and some of the absolute income represented by insurance annuities had even been cleared.

Although there may still be room for further reduction in the mid term position, the short term will at least enter a period of observation.

First, the PE (TTM) of gem (399006) has dropped to about 50 times, releasing a certain valuation risk. Two, a good portion of stocks with good valuation and earnings matching began to drop sharply last week, or even more than the gem index, which is usually used to sell stocks in bottom positions, at least indicating that short-term market sentiment has been in a rather pessimistic state.

Industrial capital will raise its share price.

Since 2016, 394 announcements of overweight have been issued, amounting to about 15 billion 700 million yuan.

In addition, up to now, 128 companies have promised not to reduce their holdings, and nearly 100 companies have locked themselves up to July this year.

(5) in addition to A shares, the global stock market index, represented by the Dow Jones industrial index, the S & P 500 and the German DAX index, has returned to the lower track area of the last two years after a short crash, and the probability of collective technical withdrawal is also improving.

It is recommended to participate in spring rebound.

In many places where people are scarce, panning for gold and picking up opportunities for matching risks and returns, investment opportunities in 2016 are all structural.

In terms of operational strategy, we need to tolerate, do not blindly move, defend the counter attack, snooker, and prudently lay out after others panic and vent. Based on the idea of "establishing new + dilapidated", we choose the four major investment fields and have patience layout.

In particular, for those who have studied deeply and have better matching of risk and return, the short-term opportunity to buy actively is:

Policy oriented opportunities: legislation, reform, breakthrough, new investment (13.5 planning, sponge City, smart city, new energy vehicle, etc.) + SOE reform (M & A) + cyclical stocks rebound.

The modern service industry, based on the pformation of population structure, meets the new era of consumption upgrading, and is optimistic about the media, health care, education, sports, tourism, culture and so on.

The related opportunities of new shares are new shares, sub shares, the value of the high dividend stock, the stock return and the overseas mergers and acquisitions.

Overfall and rebound are essentially contrarian strategies and difficult to operate. We have different proposals for different types of institutional investors.

The relative benefits of assessment: like growth fund managers.

In the early stage, the short-term market panic can be used to make use of the short-term market panic and band around the high quality stocks that still retain their positions.

Better growth stocks, lock the relative benefits gained; if the investment quota is limited, QFII must be fully loaded.

Taking into account the medium-term risk of the market is not yet fully released, it is recommended to use the spring rebound, the high valuation varieties will be further silo to low.

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Three suggestions for investors to assess absolute returns: first, controlling positions is still the primary task; large funds are not suitable for deep rebound; secondly, according to their trading ability, if they are not good at trading, they will rather not do; thirdly, the game should rebound to choose good liquidity stocks.

In the medium term, we would like to reiterate our cautious attitude towards the 2016 and fight the war of annihilation, especially the complexity of external factors this year (the oil price slump, the rising probability of financial crisis in resource countries; the linked exchange rate system of the Hong Kong dollar is being tested; in 2016, influenced by the interest rate hike cycle, the US stock market is likely to face the "Davies double kill" that the valuation center has shifted down and the growth performance has stagnated), which has intensified the risk of market adjustment.

First of all, we need to take the initiative to choose the time, make the positions more flexible, concentrate the superior forces to carry out the key attack, grasp the stage market, and fully measure the ratio of risk and earnings, so that we can get excess returns.

After the "big year" that has been investing for several years in succession, under the background of large expansion of the A share market, the 2016 rate is probably a "small year". We must not be blind and optimistic, blindly pursue the rise and fall.