China'S Stock Market Crash Triggered A "Hard Landing" Conjecture

The theme of this year's Davos world economic forum will focus on technology pformation and the "fourth industrial revolution".

Although technology is the main concern in the calendar of global business and political leaders, some traditional topics still beset the world, such as China's adjustment of the market turbulence brought about by its monetary policy, the new order of crude oil market, the threat of terrorism and the tension of geopolitical governance.

Anne Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management Corp, said all these concerns were worrying.

She said, "we see the slowdown in China's economic growth, and China's economic growth in 2016 is expected to be 6% to 6.5%, but this is still more than two times the growth rate of the developed countries."

Anne Richards pointed out, "I haven't seen it yet.

There are signs of a hard landing, but China, the second largest economy in the world, will be a huge theme in 2016.

Last year, the world achieved a series of positive progress in geopolitical issues, including the historic agreement between the international community and Iran on the nuclear issue, the control of the Ebola virus, the breakthrough of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, and the global Paris climate agreement.

In addition to the threat of terrorism, the collapse of oil prices, the escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran's two main Middle East powers and the fragile future relationship between European political and economic alliances are the key points in 2016.

John Studzinski, vice president of Blackstone Group, said that the focus of the 2016 world economic forum will shift from monetary policy and economic cycle to "what factors will achieve the geopolitical cycle".

John Studzinski points out, "the key here is that the geopolitical cycle and economic cycle in Europe are unified, because the EU is still one of the largest economies in the world, though it may break up.

The breakup of the EU will pose a great challenge to its own leadership. "

Germany appealed to European countries to liberate the border and accept these refugees.

Germany expects 1 million refugees to arrive in Germany in 2015.

Although German Chancellor Merkel was applauded for his response to Europe's response to the refugee problem, some women were alleged to be sexually assaulted by Arabia and Africans in the German new year, which made Merkel's "welcome immigration" policy criticized.

The accusation has also given European right-wing political groups an opportunity.

Mark Malloch Brown, CO chair of the business and Sustainable Development Association of the world economic forum, said geopolitical issues are affecting Europe, for example, immigration needs more attention.

Leaders from all countries can discuss the matter with the Davos forum.

Mark Malloch Brown pointed out that "Europe is facing a series of unresolved crises, the most important of which is immigration.

But immigration issues involve political problems in Europe and its neighbouring regions. If illegal immigrants from Africa and the Middle East fail to solve them well, this will pose a fundamental threat to the overall situation of Europe. "

blackstone group

It is pointed out that Europe is threatened by the unilateral polarization of the left and right-wing groups, and that the separation of the left and the right is exacerbated by the immigration crisis.

Europe needs to listen to its voice and try to maintain its position.

Because Europe has been very successful in the past 40 years.

But Europe needs more listening and cross regional cooperation.

But now the situation is just the opposite. European countries are developing their local populism and nationalism as refugees begin to close their borders.

This will cause a lot of trouble.

Last year, the world

One of the most important concerns is when the Federal Reserve will open interest rate window.

Finally, after a long hint of the market, the Fed finally raised interest rates by 25 basis points in December last year.

The decision of the Fed is considered a big step by the market.

Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management Corp, said that although the Fed's monetary policy began to tighten, the European Central Bank continued to implement loose monetary policy in Europe, hoping to stimulate economic growth and the recovery of inflation.

The divergence of monetary policy and its possible impact on the global economy will be the "big problem of 2016".

Richards pointed out that "we have experienced a period of disagreement between us and European interest rate policies, and the last impact is not conducive to Europe.

But I believe that with the market turmoil in late 2015 and early 2016, the possibility of further raising interest rates by the fed in the first half of this year has been ruled out, and the Fed's rate hike may be the fastest in the second half of 2016.

This means that policy differences will be smaller than we thought before.