Polyester Supply And Demand Structure Analysis For You To Interpret The Market

In 2015, the new capacity of polyester production was 2 million 800 thousand tons, less than the expected 3 million 800 thousand tons at the beginning of the year. After preliminary assessment, the new polyester production capacity in 2016 is estimated at 2 million 950 thousand tons of accessories, of which the main body is still polyester filament, and the determinacy is relatively large, and the new plan of bottle bottle device is still more. However, at the end of the year, there are many uncertainties, and inevitably there will be a delay to the next year, and another 200 thousand tons of film.

The PTA inventory of PTA factories and polyester factories has been in a low position for a long time.

Spot supply is in a tight state. Because polyester factories are in a long-term deficit, the overall replenishment intention is not strong enough to basically maintain the rigid demand and inventory level is at a low level.

Over the past three years, the growth rate of polyester production has slowed down significantly. The continuous expansion of production capacity has, on the one hand, formed sufficient supply pressure, making China a well deserved polyester power. On the other hand, under the background of weak demand, there has also been obvious market pressure.

At this point, more and more people begin to think whether the expansion of polyester in China has reached the peak. The following industries will gradually say farewell to the expansion era, and make more structural changes through integration of resources, upgrading of production capacity and elimination.

In 2016, polyester production capacity will continue to grow. It is initially estimated that by the end of 2016, China's domestic total production capacity of polyester is expected to reach 49 million 430 thousand tons, and its capacity growth will be around 6.4%. The growth rate will be slightly higher than that in 2015, but it is still at a relatively low level of growth.

With the slowdown in productivity growth,

The growth rate also showed a sharp decline. In 2010, -2014 output growth declined for four consecutive years, the lowest drop to 1.6% in 2014.

In 2015, polyester production was estimated at 35 million 220 thousand tons, up 8.2% from the same period last year, a sharp rise compared with last year, giving good support to upstream raw materials.

In terms of profit, in the first quarter of 2015, the profit level of polyester filament and staple fiber was better. In early April, Xiang Lu Petrochemical explosion, PTA load fell, PTA spot price stabilized significantly, while the price of polyester products in the lower reaches was weak.

The profit level began to squeeze; in July, Yisheng and Hengli jointly reduced production, PTA load maintained low load state, and polyester demand fell into the off-season, downstream production and marketing downturn, polyester profit level continued to deteriorate; in the four quarter, PTA social inventory maintained low position, PTA factory strong price intention, PTA spot price continued to be strong, and polyester traditional consumption peak season performance is not good, most of the price reduction to inventory mainly, as at the beginning of December, except for short fiber and DTY, other products loss margin is still at a high level.

In 2016, polyester production capacity will continue to expand, while polyester factories have weaker bargaining power for upstream raw materials. It is estimated that polyester production will continue to be in deficit in 2016. After 2017, polyester production capacity is coming to an end. The polyester industry will gradually enter the production capacity cycle. At that time, the overall profit level of polyester processing will be improved.