PTA:2015 Was In A Low, Wide And Fluctuating Market.

The PTA index contract rose from a low of 4500 at the beginning of the year to 5600 near the beginning of May. After that, it fell back to the lowest level in early December and dropped to 4500 near the beginning of the year.

The fluctuation range is more than 1100 points, the amplitude is over 24%.

According to the characteristics of market trend and market leading factors, the market can be divided into three parts from time to time: the first stage: from early January to early May, the concussion is upward.

From early January to early April, the price of PTA basically fluctuated back and forth with crude oil. In mid January, PTA's main force 1505 dropped to 4480 for support, and then rebounded to 5000.

In April 6th,

The explosion at Tenglong PX plant resulted in the closure of the 6 million 150 thousand ton PTA plant of Xiang Lu, and the shortage of PTA spot supply, and futures prices rebounded rapidly to 5600 near the year.

The second stage: from early May to late August, the three wave fell back: in May, crude oil basically maintained the shock market, but the domestic part

Restart, load increased to more than 7, downstream demand seasonal decline, PTA price shock down, 1509 contract from 5500 yuan / ton line callback to 4900 yuan / ton line.

In mid June, the domestic stock market and the international crude oil slump triggered panic selling in commodity markets. PTA futures prices fell sharply, and the 1509 contract fell from 5000 yuan / ton line to 4400 yuan / ton line.

In mid August, international crude oil continued to fall, and domestic stock market once again saw a slump. The commodity market once again slumped, and the 1601 contract fell from the 4800 line to the lowest 4200 in the year.

The third stage: from early August to early December, low level consolidation.

During the National Day holiday, international crude oil rose sharply, and Sinopec, Jiangyin Hon bang and Hengli petrochemical facilities were overhauled, the load of the plants decreased, and the PTA1601 contract rebounded from 4450 to 4800 front-line.

At the beginning of November, crude oil once again ushered in a sharp fall. However, the load of the PTA plant was low, and the social inventory digestion was also low. Suppliers had strong willingness to hold prices, while the PTA price was lower than that of crude oil.

In December 4th, the OPEC meeting did not reach the ceiling of production. The market pessimism intensified, crude oil fell to a low point in the year, and PTA dropped to 4300 near the lowest point in the year.

Looking forward to 2016, the weakness of crude oil and overcapacity will still be the main factors that affect the trend of the whole market. We believe that the PTA price will remain low and broad oscillation market in 2016, and it will run in the range of 3800 yuan / ton -5200 yuan / ton. At the same time, it is concerned about the industrial policy and the uncertain risks caused by the rebound in crude oil prices.