Polyester Weak Continuation Downstream Enterprises Operating Rate Decline

Recently, although crude oil prices are still lingering low, the domestic chemicals market seems to be ignoring. A wave of rally has been staged at the end of the year, and the PTA price has rebounded more than 200 points from the bottom.

As the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream demand enterprises are facing a holiday. The operating rate has been gradually declining, and the demand for PTA will be reduced. At the same time, the raw material terminal PX also lacks sufficient support strength. It is expected that the PTA price will fall back later.

Judging from the traditional law, the operation rate of polyester enterprises and terminal Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined significantly due to the lower factories' holidays before the Spring Festival. The decline period usually starts from a month before the Spring Festival.

Among them, the start-up rate of polyester factories has dropped by 10%, while the load of weaving enterprises has dropped to below 20%, and the adjustment of downstream load has gradually started.

By contrast, PTA factories are not affected by holidays, and the overall average operating rate is around 70%.

However, in addition to the long term parking capacity, the actual start load is about 87%.

In terms of new capacity, Jiangyin Hon two phase 2 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA new plant is initially planned to be put into operation in late January.

The reduction of demand will not be conducive to inventory digestion in the PTA market.

Under the mode that supply continues to expand and demand is seriously insufficient, PTA price pressure downward will be a big probability event.

After the Fed raised interest rates, oversupply has become an important factor affecting the oil market. Oil prices have been weighed down by the OPEC member countries' non production cuts and the sustained high US stocks.

The PX market was also not optimistic, because the ACP negotiations broke down again in January 2016.

Market lack of price support, production and processing profits also declined.

Although the domestic PX operating rate is less than 60%, the output has been greatly reduced. But on the news side, the 1 million 600 thousand ton / year PX device of the Ningbo CICC Petrochemical Company will be reopened in the near future in December 2015, and the domestic supply will be restored.

In addition, a set of 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PX installations in India will be put into operation in late January. Under the pressure of increasing supply, the price of PX will continue to be weak.

Whole

In the industrial chain, the PTA and polyester industry in the middle link are the most difficult.

After a brief profit from late October 2015 to early December, PTA manufacturers returned to a loss pattern in the past month, with a current loss exceeding 200 yuan / ton.

At the same time, although polyester polyester prices have been repeatedly low, they have not changed.

Cash flow loss and high inventory.

Polyester production and sales rate is difficult to balance, especially the short fiber production and sales rate is also in a low position for a long time. Most downstream manufacturers sell mainly with rigid demand, and the purchase of PTA is relatively large.

Due to the huge pressure from the end of the year, the factory was forced to introduce a maintenance plan and increase the discount rate under the pressure of inventory.

Against this background, polyester prices are hard to change.