PTA Supply And Demand Stage Or Tight Situation Will Continue

Crude oil prices have fallen by more than 2/3 since the middle of 2014.

A recent OPEC meeting has not yet reached a unified agreement on the crude oil production cap, and the major oil producing countries, including Russia and the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have produced hundreds of thousands of barrels per day.

Iran hopes to increase exports after the lifting of sanctions in early 2016, which means that new supplies may soon flow to the market.

The US dollar has entered the interest rate cycle officially. In 2016, there are still several interest rate hikes, which will further reduce oil prices.

In 2016, oil prices were expected to remain low.

In 2015, the PX- naphtha oil price difference lasted for a longer time to maintain US $350 / ton, reflecting the overall processing profit of PX, which was mainly due to the following reasons: first, after the concentrated production of global capacity in 2014, some of the PX production capacity began to be eliminated, and the new production capacity in 2015 was less; two

The concentration of production enterprises is very high, bargaining power is strong, and the domestic aromatics explosion of Tenglong caused its 1 million 600 thousand tons of equipment to shut down for a long time, and the dependence of imports increased.

In 2016, although Asian PX capacity growth has picked up, China, the largest PX consumer country, has no new capacity to launch, while Tenglong aromatics is unlikely to restart, and its dependence on imports will remain around 50%.

It is estimated that the PX plant still has strong bargaining power, thereby giving PTA a certain support at the cost side.

Since the beginning of 2015,

Processing profit continued to deteriorate, mainly due to the downturn in the textile industry, the weakening of polyester consumption, and the frequent reduction in the promotion of polyester factories.

On the other hand, PTA continues to expand due to tight supply and relatively strong prices.

Although many times the price of polyester sales promotion, but the stock level is still in the high level of the year, the overall inventory pressure.

In terms of textile and clothing exports, exports totaled 257 billion 32 million US dollars in the first 11 months of 2015, down 5.78% from the same period last year.

In the background of currency devaluation and domestic labor costs in emerging countries, China's textile and apparel export situation in 2016 is still grim.

By the end of 2015, the domestic

The total capacity is 46 million 930 thousand tons, the total production capacity of polyester is 46 million 480 thousand tons, PTA absolute total production capacity exceeds the absolute production capacity of polyester. After removing the application of PTA in the field of production of polyester, PTA supply is still in excess.

But from a phased point of view, with the phased withdrawal of the two big PTA giants of the Far East Petrochemical Company and Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, as well as some long-term idle small devices, the effective capacity of PTA is only about 33 million tons, which means that the PTA ceiling at present is about 70%.

Since April 2015, the PTA market has been in a tight supply situation, and PTA social inventories have been well digested.

In 2016, the new capacity was planned to be about 4 million 400 thousand tons.

Among them, Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons and Jiangyin Hon BANG 2 million 200 thousand tons plan to put into operation in the first half of the year, the Ukrainian Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand tons installation plan is put into operation at the end of the year, but there is still a delay.

In addition, the 4 million 500 thousand ton plant of Xiang Lu Petrochemical will return to the market in the fourth quarter of next year.

In view of this, the PTA industry giant's control capability is still strong before the Xiang Lu device restarts in 2016. In order to maintain reasonable processing costs, the joint production restriction and control start is still a big probability event, and the tight supply stage will continue.