China May Gradually Face Persistent Pressures Of Hard Employment And Hard Pay.

In 2016, China's economy was faced with the structural reform of "three down, one down and one subsidy", that is, economic leveraging, industrial capacity, property market inventory, financing cost of real economy, supplementary supply side and short human resources.

On the whole, China's economy will undergo a difficult pformation during the "13th Five-Year" period. The international community will pay attention to the great planning and growth commitments of the Chinese government and prudently reassess the Chinese economy.

Since 2011, China's economy has continued downhill, but the employment situation is unharmed.

Perhaps in 2016, China may gradually face the continuing pressure of hard employment and hard pay.

Why in the past five years 2011~2015, the downward pressure of the economy has not brought unemployment pressure? We can roughly observe the supply and demand in the labor market.

At present, about 20 million new job seekers are added each year, and the following channels absorb the pressure of employment: first, the replacement of labor force caused by the tide of retirement.

At present, the number of urban employees is close to 400 million. If there is no obvious merger and reorganization bankruptcy, it can provide jobs of not less than 10 million per year, and the two is the continued decline in the labor force participation rate.

In recent ten years, China's labour force participation rate has dropped by 0.8 percentage points per year, and its causes are complex. However, it is very likely that more than 5 million of the 50~60 year old labor force has withdrawn from the labor market each year. Three, there is a lack of reliable data on the employment situation of the Polytechnic and university graduates.

Some of them are faced with the predicament of unemployment, but the unemployment pressure of this group is not included in the unemployment rate; four, the change of employment structure.

The labor force separated from the primary industry has been pferred to the second and third industries, especially the third industry. The development of the service industry has effectively relieved the employment pressure. Five, the deepening reform of the social security system has made the social pressure of unemployment not exposed in groups.

Over the past five years, the most disadvantaged workers in the job market are college graduates and middle-aged people.

First, directional blasting of serious excess capacity will bring predictable unemployment pressure.

There are more than ten million employees in two industries, including steel and coal, which put pressure on local governments and social security systems.

Moreover, the employment absorbed by the manufacturing industry may continue to weaken. From 2004 to 2011, China's industry has experienced continuous expansion, and its absorbing labor force is also rising. However, since 2014, industrial investment and value-added have continued to slump, indicating that the follow-up industry will release rather than absorb the unemployment pressure.

In the past tens of millions of retirements - new replacement tide will continue to ebb.

After the new year's day in 2016, the rhythm of workers returning home from the Spring Festival was 1~2 weeks earlier than in previous years, revealing the precursor of the release of unemployment pressure in the manufacturing industry.

Two, the employment of unskilled labor with young migrant workers as the main body is difficult.

In the past, property, housekeeping, logistics, retail and other industries have created a large number of jobs, but the above-mentioned industries in the southeast coast have begun to show signs of growth fatigue, and the bargaining power of workers' wages has dropped significantly.

Employment starting salaries in home economics, business and other fields have not started to rise and fall, and the service industry as a reservoir for employment has slowed down its savings capacity.

Three, the downward pressure on the prices of Chinese agricultural products will be released.

This is not only a predicament faced by domestic grain supply and demand imbalance, but also a pressure brought about by the widening of grain price differences at home and abroad.

In general, the downward trend of grain prices will reduce farmers' income, especially the income of large grain producers.

The growth of rural consumption will also be constrained by the pressure of overlay and farm incomes.

In the past 3~4 years, the consumption at county level and below was once.

The bright spot of growth.

The four is the pressure on job seekers of college graduates.

This kind of frictional unemployment is mainly due to the university graduates' job seeking intentions, which are concentrated on white-collar workers in metropolis offices.

In fact, China's higher education has entered the stage of mass education.

College Students' position and willingness to apply for jobs bring hidden unemployment pressure, and families are forced to absorb the unemployment pressure.

Overall, in the past five years, people have misunderstood that even if economic growth continues to decline, it will not hinder tens of millions of new jobs every year.

The key to decoupling growth from unemployment is that steady growth conceals structural pformation without major progress.

Starting from 2016, the unemployment pressure brought about by the decline of growth will become apparent. The vulnerable groups in the labor market will come mainly from three aspects: first, the capacity to pform the industry.

Two of them are migrant workers and three are college graduates.

China's labor market will experience painful adjustments to job search difficulties and even lower pay. It will also impact China's only reliable growth engine, namely consumption.

First, social safety nets should be effective, especially in response to agricultural products.

Two, in the process of promoting structural pformation, more public resources should be injected into the construction of social security system, attention to people themselves, consumption of large quantities of public resources in exchange for the stability of economic growth; three, the adjustment of the elite tendency of higher education should be appropriately adjusted, and the reality that it has entered the mass education will be avoided, and the gap between higher education and job hunting will be avoided. Four, the social security system should be built at a sustainable level matching the national economic strength and economic development stage, so as to avoid overtaking the government.