It Is Difficult To Achieve The Expected Goal By A Single Delayed Retirement Policy.

According to the plan, the concrete plan for postponing retirement was announced in 2017, and was formally implemented in 2022.

The policy of delaying retirement will be an important measure for China to cope with the aging of population. It has two main goals: solving the problem of pension gap and increasing the labor participation rate of the elderly.

But from the actual situation of the labor market, if there are no other related policies, it is very difficult to achieve the two goals by postponing the retirement policy alone.

After the implementation of the delayed retirement policy, the affected elderly

Generally speaking, the attitude towards the policy can be divided into two categories: one is unwilling to continue to work, and the other is willing to continue working.

The former workers are mostly employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, manufacturing, pportation, warehousing and postal services, construction, electricity, gas and water production and supply. These industries require higher physical strength.

The latter type of workers are mostly employed in "scientific research and technological services", "education and public management" and "social organizations", and these industries require less physical strength.

According to the 2010 census data, in the "agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery", "mining", "manufacturing", "pportation, warehousing and postal services", "construction industry", "electricity, gas and water production and supply" and other industries, the employment population aged 55 to 59 accounted for 86.43% of the total employed population in that age group.

After the delay in retirement, many elderly workers in these industries will still look for various reasons for early retirement due to physical deterioration and so on.

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In addition, the proportion of older workers in these industries is relatively large. Therefore, from these industries, the labor participation rate of elderly workers may not be as high as expected, and the problem of pension gap may not be as good as expected.

The policy of postponing retirement alone is more difficult to achieve.

From 2004 to 2006, Austria gradually postponed the retirement age of women from 55 to 57.2, and the male retirement age was postponed from 60 to 62.2 years old.

After the implementation of the delayed retirement policy, only 7% increase in men who continued to work, while women increased by only 10%.

The situation may be more serious.

Census data in 2010 showed that China's 50 to 59 year old men had a total of 1 million 186 thousand non economically active population, of which only 166 thousand were unemployed, while women with 50 to 54 years old had 1 million 410 thousand non economic activities and only 430 thousand of their incapacity.

This shows that even when the existing retirement age is low, many workers close to retirement age withdraw from the labour market ahead of time, and the reason for their withdrawal is not the loss of working ability.

A large proportion of workers employed in such sectors as "scientific research and technological services", "education and public management" and "social organization" come from public institutions and other non-profit organizations.

Their willingness to continue their work is stronger, and the labor participation rate of some elderly workers will be greatly improved after the delay in retirement.

But the problem is that the wages of this part of the workers are mostly allocated by the public, and the number of wages in general is higher than that of the pension.

Therefore, after the delay in retirement, the government's expenditure will be changed from "pension" to "wage", and the total expenditure may not rise or fall.