The RMB Exchange Rate Has Changed Rapidly.

To maintain a stable exchange rate, the most fundamental strategy can only be "fast and undefeated": let the exchange rate be adjusted more flexibly and quickly. We expect that by the end of 2016, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar will reach 7.3. Therefore, increasing the US dollar and "storing the money in the people" will be an important trend in the next stage. Investors will start to enjoy the fun of "global asset allocation".

No matter how you feel, 2015 has passed away.

In the past year, many people have experienced the sudden "mountain avalanche" of A shares. They are still cramped under the fixed income wings. This sudden transformation has caused an uproar "asset shortage" for fixed income products.

For a long time, the exchange rate seems to be less concerned in the domestic investment field. In 2015, when the vast majority of investors enjoyed the pleasure of "coming to the world" after the RMB "basket SDR", the upheaval of the exchange rate has quietly arrived, which constituted the most crucial thread to grasp the trend of investment in 2016.

The renminbi has continued to appreciate for many years, and systemic overestimation symptoms began in 2012 and beyond. At the beginning of 2016, the RMB exchange rate changed.

With the completion of the "SDR test", it is expected that the renminbi will inevitably adjust to the US dollar exchange rate. In this regard, after the success of the "basket", the senior officials of the policy departments have clearly answered the answer: the ultimate goal of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform is "clean floating" (that is, full floating). The next stage of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation and volatility will definitely expand. The key is to design a good policy to make the process relatively stable.

In my view, the key to maintaining stability is to avoid the high exchange rate of capital account and the loss of blood reserves. To this end, targeted measures, in addition to the possibility of more "Tobin tax", the most fundamental strategy can only be "fast and undefeated": let the exchange rate more flexible and more quickly adjust!

We expect that by the end of 2016, RMB The middle price will reach 7.3 against the US dollar. Therefore, increasing the US dollar and "storing the money in the people" will be an important trend in the next stage. Investors will start to enjoy the fun of "global allocation of assets". The global economy is not the same as the heat of the cold. There will always be "rain on the east side of the west" and money will no longer sleep. "Cash is king" into history.

Our experience in adjusting the exchange rate of many economies around the world shows that as long as the local currency's significant adjustment to the US dollar has led to the effective downgrading of the local currency, the economy of the world's economy has changed dramatically. equity market The general trend is rising. Without exception, there will be panic at the beginning, but that is the best time to play the game of courage.

Therefore, the more empty the RMB exchange rate in 2016 is, the more steadfast it should be for the stock market in 2016. If the RMB exchange rate adjustment is large enough to make the overestimation of the effective exchange rate of RMB be corrected, then the real bull market will probably start at no time. Otherwise, it will still be a "small buffalo" under the loose liquidity.

It is particularly worth noting that when the "registration system" is on the stage, investment in equity can continue to capture the opportunity of the two tier market and advance further to the stage of equity investment before the listing of enterprises, which may be more beneficial, but this requires more professional standards and a strong eye.

Well, Bond Market And other fixed income products? Interest rates may still have room for exploration, but to meet the investors' expected returns, they can only be achieved by increasing leverage and creditworthiness. In my view, the risk return ratio of this scenario is not appropriate. In the past two years, we have eaten the ox and ox of the fixed income products. In the face of the last "oxtail soup", we do not drink it.

If the RMB exchange rate market is really on schedule, the "manufacturing industry and the Chinese economy" will finally come to the end of the dawn. For many years, "going to the virtual" has finally moved to the "last mile" of the dark road. For investors who are doing business, the pressure is still on, but pessimism can begin to be unloaded. Under the premise of maintaining a healthy financial situation, we can consider more mergers and acquisitions. At the latest, in 2018, China's economy will obviously get out of the doldrums.