On The Shore, The RMB Has Been Pegged To The US Dollar For Several Consecutive Days.

Although the central bank has repeatedly stressed the importance of the renminbi exchange rate to reference a basket of exchange rates, the renminbi has again been pegged to the US dollar recently.

Since last Monday, the RMB on the coast has been 9 consecutive against the US dollar.

Stability is in the 6.58 line, and the daily amplitude is no more than 100 points. The duration of the cross plate is the longest since last year's 8.11 remittance.

At the same time, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been set at 6.56 for 16 consecutive trading days.

On the shore, the RMB rose to 0.04% against the dollar today, closing at 6.5755. The difference between the highest and the lowest price in the day is only 46 points.

Two onshore RMB traders told Bloomberg that, in the past half a month, including today, there are at least two Chinese funded banks continue to sell dollars in the vicinity of 6.5800 every day, maintaining the shore exchange rate stabilized at 6.58.

"After offshore liquidity has stabilized, the onshore market has also stopped a lot. On the one hand, the purchase of foreign exchange market is relatively quiet at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, in a daily paction, it is obvious that several Chinese banks are in turn guarding the price.

"One foreign trader said.

The goal of China's foreign exchange reform is to achieve the marketization of exchange rate. Ma Jun, chief economist of the central bank's Research Bureau, has publicly commented that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is no longer pegged to the US dollar. Increasing the strength of reference to a basket of currencies is the keynote of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in the foreseeable future.

about

Since the new year's "precarious", many analysts believe that this is because the renminbi has lost the "anchor" of the US dollar, and the new "anchor" has not yet appeared.

It is worth noting that the index of the US dollar and the basket of currencies has been relatively stable recently. The next step is to focus on the trend of the Renminbi when the US dollar fluctuates, so as to give the RMB a peg to the dollar. Morgan, chief economist of JP Zhu Haibin, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview.

It said, "the first half of this year.

Still stronger, if the dollar is pegged again, the disadvantages are obvious.

"

In any case, the central bank's recent focus on stabilizing the exchange rate is almost the consensus of analysts.

Zhou Hao, a senior economist at the Commerzbank of Asia, said, "I believe this wave of exchange rate stability will last until at least the end of the first quarter, and the offshore renminbi will be stable at about 6.6 against the US dollar".

However, this does not mean that China's exchange reform process will not stop.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said today that China will steadily push forward the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

Li Keqiang said to IMF president Raja de Tong on the phone in the morning: the Chinese government does not intend to promote exports through currency devaluation, nor will it fight trade wars. It will strengthen communication with the market and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

"The decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the US dollar is abandoning the anchor of the US dollar, but it has not provided a new anchor to the market in a short time, so there is a panic or a consistent depreciation expectation in the market." Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities research Beaki Jun said, "the most urgent thing is to find a new anchor for the RMB exchange rate."

"

The Central Bank of China released the CFETS exchange rate index of 13 currencies, including the euro, Australian dollar and Mexico peso in early December.

At that time, a large number of institutions, including Goldman Sachs, believed that the issuance of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index might be a green light for regulators to weaken the renminbi.

"The Chinese regulator has strengthened the possibility of a slow depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar," Goldman Sachs reported in its weekly report.