PTA Futures Overall Showed Low Oscillation Trend In 2015

"Don't forget past events," predicts PTA 2016.

Before the trend, we should first review the specific trend of PTA futures in 2015.

In 2015, the running track of PTA futures can be roughly divided into four stages.

The first stage was from 1 to March. After experiencing a sharp fall in the second half of 2014, the international crude oil prices showed signs of stabilization. Under this influence, the PTA futures index fell, operating in the range of 4500 yuan to 5000 yuan / ton.

The second stage was in April. Under the joint action of the rise of international crude oil prices and the reduction of load by PTA enterprises, the PTA futures index ushered in a long time of rising prices in opposition, and the price rose from 4500 yuan / ton to 5628 yuan / ton in the year.

The third stage is from 5 to August. With the rise of PTA prices, the operation of PTA production enterprises has been improved and some enterprises have resumed production.

Then, under the pressure of increased supply,

Futures index turns downward.

During this process, the unilateral panic of crude oil price and the panic caused by the downward trend of domestic stock markets accelerated the decline of PTA futures index, and its lowest level was a historical low of 4186 yuan / ton.

The fourth stage was from 9 to December. As the price of crude oil stopped, the PTA futures index stabilized, but it was difficult to form an effective rise due to the weakness of its own supply and demand pattern. After September, it basically oscillated in the range of 4000 to 4800 yuan / ton.

Due to the global asset slump, the Fed's January Conference on interest rates did not raise interest rates. Instead, it maintained a loose monetary policy at the same time to support the further improvement of the labour market and inflation to the 2% target.

The next conference on interest rates will be held in March 17th, so the United States will only raise interest rates by the end of March.

In addition, the Fed's officials recently released dovish remarks because of poor economic data.

The market believes that the Fed will raise interest rates again in early June.

However, crude oil prices plummeted and inflation prospects worsened. In order to avoid economic recession, the BoJ unexpectedly cut interest rates to -0.1% in January 29th, and Japan officially entered the era of negative interest rates.

This will trigger a new round of global easing. The US dollar will be passively strong and commodities will face strong repression.

Data released by Beck and Hughes showed that as of January 16, 2016, the total number of crude oil drilling in the United States was 515, compared with 851 in the same period last year, down 62.30% compared with the same period last year. The total number of natural gas drilling still running is 135, compared with 310 in the same period last year, down 56.45% from the same period last year.

Persistent low oil prices led to shale oil companies in the US.

In order to reduce losses, a large number of drilling began to stop production.

Because PX production will cause some pollution to the environment, there is always a psychological conflict against PX production in China.

Therefore, the domestic PTA productivity growth rate continues to rise, PX's capacity growth is very low, need a large number of imports to make up for the shortage of supply, PX import dependence is always above 50%.

PX relies on imports, and its pportation is inconvenient. In the past, the shortage of PX's stage and structural supply has stimulated the price rise.

In 2015, the import PX11687086.32 tons increased by 1714391.67 tons compared with 2014, an increase of 17.19%.

In 2016, there were only two PX installations to be put into operation in China, namely, Hainan refinery and chemical company 2 production capacity of 600 thousand tons / year and Sichuan Shengda production capacity of 800 thousand tons / year, and the capacity growth rate was 10.06%.

Internationally, India and Saudi Arabia have installed capacity of 1 million 800 thousand tons / year and capacity of 1 million tons / year respectively. The PX supply capability of Asian market is enhanced.

However, whether in China or India and Saudi Arabia, the commissioning of PX's new capacity is in the second half of the year. There is no obvious change in the supply of PX in the first half of this year.

Overall, domestic capacity has increased in 2016, and PX's dependence on imports will decline, helping to reduce the cost of enterprises.

However, the new capacity of PX will be put into operation in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the insufficient supply of PX is difficult to change, and the price of PX will still be affected by the peripheral market.